Marin FC Siren vs Oakland Soul Statistics & Analysis

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Validation Report

AI match briefing

Model Performance

AI Match Summary

Historical Recommendation

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Last Updated

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USL W League — Standings

Marin FC Siren

Jun 18, 2026 - 00:30

0 1.11

6 1.49

xG Accuracy: 21%

Oakland Soul

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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Oakland Soul Oakland Soul ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-6 ✖ Incorrect

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 19:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1629757

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Oakland Soul win · Marin FC Siren 0–6 Oakland Soul

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: USL W League
Fixture: Marin FC Siren vs Oakland Soul
Kickoff: 2026-06-18 00:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · Away 44.3%
xG (showing): Marin FC Siren 1.11 — Oakland Soul 1.49 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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