Statistics / Football / USA. USL W League / Salmon Bay vs Olympia

Salmon Bay vs Olympia Statistics & Analysis

Jun 13, 2026 - 02:00
3 1.26
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 56%
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Olympia Salmon Bay ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5680284

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Salmon Bay win · Salmon Bay 3–1 Olympia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: USL W League
  • Fixture: Salmon Bay vs Olympia
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 02:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Salmon Bay 1.26 — Olympia 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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USL W League USL W League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Indy Eleven W 7 4 1 2 13
2 Racing Louisville W 6 3 2 1 11
3 Dayton Dutch Lions W 5 3 1 1 10
4 Toledo Villa W 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Indy Eleven W 7 19 4 +15 13
2 Racing Louisville W 6 9 6 +3 11
3 Dayton Dutch Lions W 5 8 8 0 10
4 Toledo Villa W 6 3 21 -18 0