Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga I / AFC Hermannstadt vs FCSB

AFC Hermannstadt vs FCSB Statistics & Analysis

AFC Hermannstadt AFC Hermannstadt
May 18, 2026 - 17:30
2 0.97
0 1.91
xG Accuracy: 45%
FCSB FCSB
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FCSB AFC Hermannstadt ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-3 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 00:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1776316

Closing Odds 2.21
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result AFC Hermannstadt win · AFC Hermannstadt 2–0 FCSB
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices FCSB (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on FCSB (1X2) by about 17.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
AFC Hermannstadt (1X2) 17.3 34.2 -16.8
Draw (1X2) 24.6 24.9 -0.3
FCSB (1X2) 58.1 41.0 +17.1
Over 2.5 goals 54.9 49.2 +5.7
Under 2.5 goals 45.1 50.8 -5.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 58.1% on FCSB (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 41.0%. The difference — about 17.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
AFC Hermannstadt (1X2) 2.65 2.65 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.64 3.64 0.0
FCSB (1X2) 2.21 2.21 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.9 1.9 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.84 1.84 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga I
  • Fixture: AFC Hermannstadt vs FCSB
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 17.3% · Draw 24.6% · Away 58.1%
  • xG (showing): AFC Hermannstadt 0.97 — FCSB 1.91 (total xG ≈ 2.88)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 54.9% · Implied: 52.5% · Probability edge: +2.4 pts · Est. EV: +3.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (10.7%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for AFC Hermannstadt & FCSB!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Liga I Liga I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Universitatea Craiova 10 6 2 2 50
2 Universitatea Cluj 10 6 1 3 46
3 CFR 1907 Cluj 10 4 4 2 43
4 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 3 4 3 39
5 Rapid 10 1 3 6 34
6 Arges Pitesti 10 1 4 5 32
7 FCSB 30 13 7 10 46
8 Uta Arad 30 11 10 9 43
9 FC Botosani 30 11 9 10 42
10 Oţelul 30 11 8 11 41
11 Farul Constanta 30 10 7 13 37
12 Petrolul Ploiesti 30 7 11 12 32
13 Csikszereda 30 8 8 14 32
14 Unirea Slobozia 30 7 4 19 25
15 AFC Hermannstadt 30 5 8 17 23
16 Metaloglobus 30 2 6 22 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FCSB 30 48 40 +8 46
2 Oţelul 30 39 32 +7 41
3 Farul Constanta 30 39 37 +2 37
4 Uta Arad 30 39 44 -5 43
5 FC Botosani 30 37 29 +8 42
6 Csikszereda 30 30 58 -28 32
7 AFC Hermannstadt 30 29 50 -21 23
8 Unirea Slobozia 30 27 46 -19 25
9 Metaloglobus 30 25 66 -41 12
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 30 24 31 -7 32
11 Universitatea Cluj 10 13 11 +2 46
12 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 13 12 +1 39
13 Universitatea Craiova 10 12 6 +6 50
14 CFR 1907 Cluj 10 8 7 +1 43
15 Rapid 10 8 14 -6 34
16 Arges Pitesti 10 6 10 -4 32
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FCSB 30 50.6 28.2 +22.4 46
2 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 43.7 24.3 +19.4 39
3 Universitatea Craiova 10 37.5 24.4 +13.1 50
4 Oţelul 30 41.3 33.1 +8.2 41
5 Farul Constanta 30 37.8 33.2 +4.6 37
6 CFR 1907 Cluj 10 34.8 32.4 +2.4 43
7 Rapid 10 35.3 33.2 +2.1 34
8 FC Botosani 30 33.9 32.2 +1.7 42
9 Universitatea Cluj 10 32.0 30.8 +1.2 46
10 Arges Pitesti 10 26.0 25.8 +0.2 32
11 AFC Hermannstadt 30 29.8 31.9 -2.1 23
12 Petrolul Ploiesti 30 28.9 34.5 -5.6 32
13 Uta Arad 30 33.5 42.0 -8.5 43
14 Unirea Slobozia 30 26.9 39.8 -12.9 25
15 Metaloglobus 30 23.1 42.4 -19.3 12
16 Csikszereda 30 22.9 49.8 -26.9 32
Liga I Romania. Liga I Predictions