Statistics / Football / Gambia. GFA League / Samger vs Bombada

Samger vs Bombada Statistics & Analysis

Samger Samger
Jun 17, 2026 - 16:30
2 0.85
1 0.95
xG Accuracy: 72%
Bombada Bombada
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw Samger ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 15:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2519686

Closing Odds 2.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Samger win · Samger 2–1 Bombada
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Bombada (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 8.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Samger (1X2) 29.2 39.7 -10.5
Draw (1X2) 36.2 29.1 +7.1
Bombada (1X2) 34.6 31.2 +3.4
Over 2.5 goals 26.9 35.3 -8.4
Under 2.5 goals 73.1 64.7 +8.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 73.1% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 64.7%. The difference — about 8.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Samger (1X2) 2.24 2.24 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.05 3.05 0.0
Bombada (1X2) 2.85 2.85 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.58 2.58 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.41 1.41 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: GFA League
  • Fixture: Samger vs Bombada
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-17 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.2% · Draw 36.2% · Away 34.6%
  • xG (showing): Samger 0.85 — Bombada 0.95 (total xG ≈ 1.8)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 73.1% · Implied: 63.4% · Probability edge: +9.7 pts · Est. EV: +9.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 36.9% · No 63.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (16.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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GFA League GFA League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Medina United 28 14 6 8 48
2 Fortune 28 12 11 5 47
3 Bombada 28 11 11 6 44
4 GPA 28 11 11 6 44
5 Brikama United 28 11 9 8 42
6 Real de Banjul 28 9 14 5 41
7 Team Rhino 28 9 10 9 37
8 Hart Acedemy 28 8 11 9 35
9 Dutch Lions 28 7 12 9 33
10 BST Galaxy 28 7 12 9 33
11 Hawks 28 7 10 11 31
12 Falcons 28 6 13 9 31
13 Greater Tomorrow 28 7 10 11 31
14 Steve Biko 28 5 14 9 29
15 TMT 28 6 11 11 29
16 Samger 28 5 13 10 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bombada 28 34 26 +8 44
2 Brikama United 28 33 27 +6 42
3 Hart Acedemy 28 32 31 +1 35
4 Fortune 28 31 21 +10 47
5 Medina United 28 31 24 +7 48
6 Dutch Lions 28 29 28 +1 33
7 Real de Banjul 28 28 21 +7 41
8 Team Rhino 28 25 23 +2 37
9 BST Galaxy 28 24 31 -7 33
10 Steve Biko 28 23 26 -3 29
11 Hawks 28 23 29 -6 31
12 GPA 28 22 17 +5 44
13 Greater Tomorrow 28 22 32 -10 31
14 Samger 28 20 25 -5 28
15 TMT 28 17 27 -10 29
16 Falcons 28 16 22 -6 31