Statistics / Football / USA. USL League One Cup / Forward Madison vs Union Omaha

Forward Madison vs Union Omaha Statistics & Analysis

Forward Madison Forward Madison
Jul 12, 2026 - 00:00
4 1.31
3 1.29
xG Accuracy: 30%
Union Omaha Union Omaha
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Forward Madison Forward Madison ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 00:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1521788

Closing Odds 2.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Forward Madison win · Forward Madison 4–3 Union Omaha
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Forward Madison (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 7.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Forward Madison (1X2) 35.6 30.7 +4.9
Draw (1X2) 29.7 25.1 +4.6
Union Omaha (1X2) 34.7 44.2 -9.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 55.7 -7.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 44.3 +7.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 44.3%. The difference — about 7.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Forward Madison (1X2) 2.95 2.95 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.61 3.61 0.0
Union Omaha (1X2) 2.05 2.05 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.67 1.67 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.1 2.1 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: USL League One Cup
  • Fixture: Forward Madison vs Union Omaha
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-12 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Forward Madison 1.31 — Union Omaha 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.5% · Probability edge: +8.3 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
USL League One Cup USL League One Cup — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Louisville City 4 4 0 0 12
2 Colorado Springs 4 4 0 0 12
3 Tampa Bay Rowdies 4 4 0 0 12
4 San Antonio 4 4 0 0 12
5 Charlotte Independence 4 4 0 0 12
6 Miami FC 4 3 0 1 9
7 Charleston Battery 4 3 0 1 9
8 Birmingham Legion 4 3 0 1 9
9 Hartford Athletic 4 3 0 1 9
10 Rhode Island 4 3 0 1 9
11 Sacramento Republic 4 3 0 1 9
12 Boise 4 3 0 1 9
13 New Mexico United 4 3 0 1 9
14 Indy Eleven 4 3 0 1 9
15 One Knoxville 4 3 0 1 9
16 Spokane Velocity 4 3 0 1 9
17 Brooklyn 4 2 0 2 6
18 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4 2 0 2 6
19 Lexington 4 2 0 2 6
20 El Paso Locomotive 4 2 0 2 6
21 Detroit City 4 2 0 2 6
22 Alta 4 2 0 2 6
23 Union Omaha 4 2 0 2 6
24 Portland Hearts of Pine 4 2 0 2 6
25 Monterey Bay 4 1 0 3 3
26 Oakland Roots 4 1 0 3 3
27 Sporting JAX 4 1 0 3 3
28 FC Tulsa 4 1 0 3 3
29 Greenville Triumph 4 1 0 3 3
30 Las Vegas Lights 4 1 0 3 3
31 Loudoun United 4 1 0 3 3
32 Forward Madison 4 1 0 3 3
33 Westchester SC 4 1 0 3 3
34 Corpus Christi 4 1 0 3 3
35 Phoenix Rising 4 1 0 3 3
36 NY Cosmos 4 1 0 3 3
37 Naples 4 1 0 3 3
38 Richmond Kickers 4 1 0 3 3
39 Sarasota Paradise 4 1 0 3 3
40 Chattanooga Red Wolves 4 0 0 4 0
41 Fort Wayne 4 0 0 4 0
42 Orange County SC 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Louisville City 4 13 4 +9 12
2 Miami FC 4 11 5 +6 9
3 Colorado Springs 4 10 1 +9 12
4 Tampa Bay Rowdies 4 10 1 +9 12
5 Union Omaha 4 10 12 -2 6
6 Charleston Battery 4 9 4 +5 9
7 Brooklyn 4 9 5 +4 6
8 Boise 4 9 6 +3 9
9 Birmingham Legion 4 8 3 +5 9
10 Hartford Athletic 4 8 3 +5 9
11 Charlotte Independence 4 8 4 +4 12
12 New Mexico United 4 8 5 +3 9
13 Lexington 4 8 8 0 6
14 Monterey Bay 4 8 10 -2 3
15 Rhode Island 4 7 3 +4 9
16 Sacramento Republic 4 7 3 +4 9
17 Indy Eleven 4 7 4 +3 9
18 Portland Hearts of Pine 4 7 10 -3 6
19 San Antonio 4 6 1 +5 12
20 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4 6 3 +3 6
21 One Knoxville 4 6 4 +2 9
22 Spokane Velocity 4 6 6 0 9
23 Forward Madison 4 6 10 -4 3
24 Westchester SC 4 6 10 -4 3
25 Fort Wayne 4 6 12 -6 0
26 El Paso Locomotive 4 5 5 0 6
27 Alta 4 5 6 -1 6
28 NY Cosmos 4 5 11 -6 3
29 Detroit City 4 4 4 0 6
30 Oakland Roots 4 4 6 -2 3
31 FC Tulsa 4 4 7 -3 3
32 Greenville Triumph 4 4 7 -3 3
33 Las Vegas Lights 4 4 7 -3 3
34 Loudoun United 4 4 7 -3 3
35 Sporting JAX 4 3 5 -2 3
36 Phoenix Rising 4 3 8 -5 3
37 Naples 4 3 9 -6 3
38 Richmond Kickers 4 3 9 -6 3
39 Orange County SC 4 3 9 -6 0
40 Corpus Christi 4 2 6 -4 3
41 Chattanooga Red Wolves 4 2 7 -5 0
42 Sarasota Paradise 4 2 9 -7 3