Respublika FA vs Yaypan Statistics & Analysis

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Respublika FA

Oct 08, 2026 - 10:30

2 1.32

1 1.28

xG Accuracy: 77%

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Yaypan

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Respublika FA Respublika FA ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 02, 2026 · 01:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12425793

Closing Odds 1.7

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Respublika FA win · Respublika FA 2–1 Yaypan

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.94 percentage points on Respublika FA (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Yaypan (1X2) by about 13.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Respublika FA (1X2)	36.1	53.0	-17.0
Draw (1X2)	29.7	26.1	+3.6
Yaypan (1X2)	34.2	20.9	+13.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Yaypan (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.9%. The difference — about 13.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: 1xbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Respublika FA (1X2)	1.73	1.7	+0.9
Draw (1X2)	3.44	3.46	-0.1
Yaypan (1X2)	4.16	4.32	-0.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Pro League A
Fixture: Respublika FA vs Yaypan
Kickoff: 2026-10-08 10:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Respublika FA 1.32 — Yaypan 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Pro League A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Aral	22	17	4	1	55
2	Shortan	22	14	4	4	46
3	Metalourg	22	13	5	4	44
4	FarDu	22	11	7	4	40
5	Gazalkent	22	11	5	6	38
6	Lochin	22	11	5	6	38
7	Kattaqurgon	21	11	3	7	36
8	Olimpik-Mobiuz	20	9	5	6	32
9	Respublika FA	21	8	4	9	28
10	Yaypan	22	7	4	11	25
11	Jayxun	22	7	3	12	24
12	Pakhtakor II	22	3	1	18	10
13	BuxDu	22	3	1	18	10
14	Qiziriq	22	1	1	20	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Metalourg	22	50	17	+33	44
2	Aral	22	47	14	+33	55
3	Gazalkent	22	41	26	+15	38
4	Shortan	22	39	21	+18	46
5	FarDu	22	39	32	+7	40
6	Olimpik-Mobiuz	20	37	24	+13	32
7	Lochin	22	34	26	+8	38
8	Respublika FA	21	30	30	0	28
9	Kattaqurgon	21	27	20	+7	36
10	Yaypan	22	26	40	-14	25
11	Jayxun	22	24	30	-6	24
12	BuxDu	22	19	56	-37	10
13	Pakhtakor II	22	16	51	-35	10
14	Qiziriq	22	12	54	-42	4