Pakhtakor II vs Qiziriq Statistics & Analysis

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Pakhtakor II

Aug 28, 2026 - 12:00

3 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 44%

Qiziriq

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Pakhtakor II Pakhtakor II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4918010

Closing Odds 2.09

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Pakhtakor II win · Pakhtakor II 3–0 Qiziriq

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Qiziriq (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Pakhtakor II (1X2)	36.1	42.5	-6.5
Draw (1X2)	29.7	26.7	+3.0
Qiziriq (1X2)	34.2	30.8	+3.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	57.8	-9.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	42.2	+9.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.2%. The difference — about 9.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Pakhtakor II (1X2)	2.09	2.09
Draw (1X2)	3.33	3.33
Qiziriq (1X2)	2.89	2.89
Over 2.5 goals	1.59	1.59
Under 2.5 goals	2.18	2.18

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Pro League A
Fixture: Pakhtakor II vs Qiziriq
Kickoff: 2026-08-28 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Pakhtakor II 1.32 — Qiziriq 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.9% · Probability edge: +8.9 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Pro League A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Aral	19	14	4	1	46
2	Shortan	19	12	3	4	39
3	Metalourg	19	11	4	4	37
4	FarDu	19	10	6	3	36
5	Kattaqurgon	19	10	3	6	33
6	Lochin	19	9	5	5	32
7	Olimpik-Mobiuz	18	9	4	5	31
8	Gazalkent	19	8	5	6	29
9	Jayxun	19	7	3	9	24
10	Yaypan	19	6	4	9	22
11	Respublika FA	17	4	4	9	16
12	BuxDu	18	3	1	14	10
13	Pakhtakor II	19	3	1	15	10
14	Qiziriq	19	1	1	17	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Metalourg	19	45	16	+29	37
2	Aral	19	37	11	+26	46
3	Olimpik-Mobiuz	18	34	20	+14	31
4	FarDu	19	34	26	+8	36
5	Gazalkent	19	32	22	+10	29
6	Shortan	19	31	19	+12	39
7	Lochin	19	26	20	+6	32
8	Kattaqurgon	19	24	17	+7	33
9	Jayxun	19	22	24	-2	24
10	Yaypan	19	21	32	-11	22
11	Respublika FA	17	20	28	-8	16
12	BuxDu	18	14	43	-29	10
13	Pakhtakor II	19	13	42	-29	10
14	Qiziriq	19	11	44	-33	4