Statistics / Football / Argentina. Torneo Federal A / Boca Unidos vs Juventud Antoniana

Boca Unidos vs Juventud Antoniana Statistics & Analysis

Boca Unidos Boca Unidos
Jul 26, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.27
3 1.33
xG Accuracy: 45%
Juventud Antoniana Juventud Antoniana
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Juventud Antoniana Juventud Antoniana ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454682

Closing Odds 2.58
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Juventud Antoniana win · Boca Unidos 0–3 Juventud Antoniana
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.07 percentage points on Juventud Antoniana (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 13.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Boca Unidos (1X2) 32.5 30.7 +1.8
Draw (1X2) 30.6 34.9 -4.3
Juventud Antoniana (1X2) 36.9 34.5 +2.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 35.2 +13.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 64.8 -13.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.2%. The difference — about 13.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Boca Unidos (1X2) 3.05 2.93 +1.5
Draw (1X2) 2.67 2.58 +1.5
Juventud Antoniana (1X2) 2.37 2.61 -3.1
Over 2.5 goals 2.55 2.61 -0.5
Under 2.5 goals 1.42 1.42 +0.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Torneo Federal A
  • Fixture: Boca Unidos vs Juventud Antoniana
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.5% · Draw 30.6% · Away 36.9%
  • xG (showing): Boca Unidos 1.27 — Juventud Antoniana 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 43.9% · Probability edge: +10.6 pts · Est. EV: +17.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Torneo Federal A Torneo Federal A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Olimpo Bahia Blanca 16 8 7 1 31
2 Douglas Haig 18 9 4 5 31
3 Sportivo Belgrano 18 7 9 2 30
4 San Martin Formosa 16 9 3 4 30
5 Alvarado 16 7 6 3 27
6 Gimnasia Chivilcoy 18 7 6 5 27
7 Defensores de Belgrano VR 18 7 6 5 27
8 Kimberley Mar del Plata 16 6 8 2 26
9 Bartolomé Mitre 16 7 5 4 26
10 Sol de América 16 8 2 6 26
11 Juventud Antoniana 16 7 4 5 25
12 Cipolletti 16 7 4 5 25
13 Sarmiento de La Banda 16 7 4 5 25
14 9 de Julio Rafaela 18 7 4 7 25
15 Sportivo Las Parejas 18 5 9 4 24
16 Villa Mitre 16 5 8 3 23
17 Argentino Monte Maíz 16 5 8 3 23
18 Atenas 16 6 5 5 23
19 Huracan Las Heras 16 6 5 5 23
20 Atletico Escobar 18 6 4 8 22
21 Fundacion Amigos 16 4 9 3 21
22 Deportivo Rincon 16 5 4 7 19
23 San Martín Mendoza 16 4 7 5 19
24 Defensores de Vilelas 16 6 1 9 19
25 Independiente De Chivilcoy 18 4 7 7 19
26 El Linqueño 18 5 4 9 19
27 Costa Brava 16 4 6 6 18
28 Sol de Mayo 16 4 6 6 18
29 Boca Unidos 16 5 3 8 18
30 Germinal de Rawson 16 4 6 6 18
31 Juventud Unida Univ. 16 3 8 5 17
32 Tucuman Central 16 5 2 9 17
33 Gimnasia Concepción 18 4 5 9 17
34 Guillermo Brown 16 4 5 7 17
35 Sarmiento Resistencia 16 3 6 7 15
36 Santamarina 16 2 7 7 13
37 Circulo Deportivo 16 2 7 7 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 9 de Julio Rafaela 18 28 27 +1 25
2 San Martin Formosa 16 25 19 +6 30
3 Defensores de Belgrano VR 18 24 20 +4 27
4 Douglas Haig 18 22 15 +7 31
5 Sportivo Belgrano 18 21 9 +12 30
6 Defensores de Vilelas 16 21 26 -5 19
7 Atletico Escobar 18 21 29 -8 22
8 Alvarado 16 19 7 +12 27
9 Juventud Antoniana 16 19 11 +8 25
10 Sol de América 16 19 14 +5 26
11 Cipolletti 16 19 15 +4 25
12 Boca Unidos 16 19 25 -6 18
13 Gimnasia Chivilcoy 18 17 12 +5 27
14 Fundacion Amigos 16 17 14 +3 21
15 Sarmiento de La Banda 16 17 15 +2 25
16 Argentino Monte Maíz 16 16 12 +4 23
17 Kimberley Mar del Plata 16 15 9 +6 26
18 Sol de Mayo 16 15 18 -3 18
19 Independiente De Chivilcoy 18 15 22 -7 19
20 Villa Mitre 16 14 8 +6 23
21 Tucuman Central 16 14 19 -5 17
22 El Linqueño 18 14 21 -7 19
23 Olimpo Bahia Blanca 16 13 4 +9 31
24 Bartolomé Mitre 16 13 7 +6 26
25 Deportivo Rincon 16 13 16 -3 19
26 Guillermo Brown 16 13 20 -7 17
27 Sportivo Las Parejas 18 12 13 -1 24
28 Atenas 16 12 13 -1 23
29 Costa Brava 16 12 13 -1 18
30 Gimnasia Concepción 18 12 18 -6 17
31 Sarmiento Resistencia 16 12 23 -11 15
32 Huracan Las Heras 16 11 13 -2 23
33 San Martín Mendoza 16 11 15 -4 19
34 Juventud Unida Univ. 16 10 10 0 17
35 Santamarina 16 9 17 -8 13
36 Circulo Deportivo 16 8 16 -8 13
37 Germinal de Rawson 16 7 14 -7 18
Torneo Federal A Argentina. Torneo Federal A Predictions