Statistics / Football / Russia. Supreme Division Women / Krylya Sovetov W vs Rubin Kazan

Krylya Sovetov W vs Rubin Kazan Statistics & Analysis

Krylya Sovetov W Krylya Sovetov W
Jul 11, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.44
0 1.16
xG Accuracy: 62%
Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Krylya Sovetov W Krylya Sovetov W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 07:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1565360

Closing Odds 1.65
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Krylya Sovetov W win · Krylya Sovetov W 2–0 Rubin Kazan
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Rubin Kazan (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Rubin Kazan (1X2) by about 7.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Krylya Sovetov W (1X2) 42.5 54.6 -12.1
Draw (1X2) 29.1 24.4 +4.7
Rubin Kazan (1X2) 28.4 21.0 +7.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 53.2 -5.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.8 +5.0
BTTS Yes 54.0 53.8 +0.2
BTTS No 46.0 46.2 -0.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.4% on Rubin Kazan (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.0%. The difference — about 7.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Krylya Sovetov W (1X2) 1.65 1.65 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.7 3.7 0.0
Rubin Kazan (1X2) 4.3 4.3 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.74 1.74 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.98 1.98 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.7 1.7 0.0
BTTS No 1.98 1.98 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Supreme Division Women
  • Fixture: Krylya Sovetov W vs Rubin Kazan
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-11 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.5% · Draw 29.1% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Krylya Sovetov W 1.44 — Rubin Kazan 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.2% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Supreme Division Women Supreme Division Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zenit W 18 16 2 0 50
2 CSKA Moskva W 19 16 1 2 49
3 Spartak Moskva 18 13 4 1 43
4 Lokomotiv Moskva W 18 11 4 3 37
5 Krylya Sovetov W 18 9 4 5 31
6 Dinamo Moskva 18 9 1 8 28
7 Rubin Kazan 19 5 8 6 23
8 Chertanovo 19 6 3 10 21
9 Zvezda Perm W 19 4 4 11 16
10 Krasnodar W 18 2 7 9 13
11 Rostov 19 3 3 13 12
12 Ryazan W 19 1 6 12 9
13 Yenisey W 18 0 3 15 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zenit W 18 51 5 +46 50
2 CSKA Moskva W 19 51 9 +42 49
3 Spartak Moskva 18 44 11 +33 43
4 Lokomotiv Moskva W 18 33 9 +24 37
5 Krylya Sovetov W 18 25 20 +5 31
6 Rubin Kazan 19 22 25 -3 23
7 Chertanovo 19 22 34 -12 21
8 Dinamo Moskva 18 19 17 +2 28
9 Krasnodar W 18 15 29 -14 13
10 Zvezda Perm W 19 12 33 -21 16
11 Ryazan W 19 10 39 -29 9
12 Yenisey W 18 7 42 -35 3
13 Rostov 19 6 44 -38 12
Supreme Division Women Russia. Supreme Division Women Predictions