Statistics / Football / Australia. Tasmania NPL / Ulverstone vs South East Utd.

Ulverstone vs South East Utd. Statistics & Analysis

Ulverstone Ulverstone
Aug 08, 2026 - 04:30
3 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 30%
⚽
South East Utd.
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ulverstone South East Utd. ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 00:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2807007

Closing Odds 1.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result South East Utd. win · Ulverstone 3–4 South East Utd.
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Ulverstone (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 10.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ulverstone (1X2) 36.1 26.1 +10.0
Draw (1X2) 29.7 19.2 +10.5
South East Utd. (1X2) 34.2 54.8 -20.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.2%. The difference — about 10.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ulverstone (1X2) 3.4 3.4 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.63 4.63 0.0
South East Utd. (1X2) 1.62 1.62 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tasmania NPL
  • Fixture: Ulverstone vs South East Utd.
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 04:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Ulverstone 1.32 — South East Utd. 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 27.0% · Probability edge: +24.8 pts · Est. EV: +81.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Ulverstone & South East Utd.!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Tasmania NPL Tasmania NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 South Hobart 18 15 2 1 47
2 Devonport City 18 14 1 3 43
3 Kingborough Lions 18 14 1 3 43
4 Launceston City 18 10 1 7 31
5 Clarence Zebras 18 8 3 7 27
6 Riverside 18 7 3 8 24
7 South East Utd. 18 7 0 11 21
8 Glenorchy Knights 18 5 2 11 17
9 Launceston United 18 1 2 15 5
10 Ulverstone 18 1 1 16 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 South Hobart 18 65 16 +49 47
2 Devonport City 18 56 19 +37 43
3 Kingborough Lions 18 51 16 +35 43
4 Launceston City 18 40 36 +4 31
5 Riverside 18 31 33 -2 24
6 Clarence Zebras 18 30 29 +1 27
7 South East Utd. 18 26 51 -25 21
8 Glenorchy Knights 18 23 33 -10 17
9 Launceston United 18 17 61 -44 5
10 Ulverstone 18 15 60 -45 4