Statistics / Football / Australia. Tasmania NPL / Clarence Zebras vs Ulverstone

Clarence Zebras vs Ulverstone Statistics & Analysis

Clarence Zebras Clarence Zebras
Aug 02, 2026 - 04:30
1 1.16
0 1.44
xG Accuracy: 64%
Ulverstone Ulverstone
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ulverstone Clarence Zebras ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 00:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1940954

Closing Odds 1.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Clarence Zebras win · Clarence Zebras 1–0 Ulverstone
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Ulverstone (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ulverstone (1X2) by about 29.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Clarence Zebras (1X2) 28.8 73.9 -45.1
Draw (1X2) 29.3 13.4 +15.9
Ulverstone (1X2) 41.9 12.7 +29.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.9% on Ulverstone (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 12.7%. The difference — about 29.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Clarence Zebras (1X2) 1.2 1.2 0.0
Draw (1X2) 6.6 6.6 0.0
Ulverstone (1X2) 7.0 7.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Ulverstone; market prices Clarence Zebras instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Clarence Zebras 1.16 xG vs Ulverstone 1.44 → Ulverstone 41.9%
  • Market: Clarence Zebras ~12.7% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Tasmania NPL Tasmania NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 South Hobart 18 15 2 1 47
2 Devonport City 18 14 1 3 43
3 Kingborough Lions 18 14 1 3 43
4 Launceston City 18 10 1 7 31
5 Clarence Zebras 18 8 3 7 27
6 Riverside 18 7 3 8 24
7 South East Utd. 18 7 0 11 21
8 Glenorchy Knights 18 5 2 11 17
9 Launceston United 18 1 2 15 5
10 Ulverstone 18 1 1 16 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 South Hobart 18 65 16 +49 47
2 Devonport City 18 56 19 +37 43
3 Kingborough Lions 18 51 16 +35 43
4 Launceston City 18 40 36 +4 31
5 Riverside 18 31 33 -2 24
6 Clarence Zebras 18 30 29 +1 27
7 South East Utd. 18 26 51 -25 21
8 Glenorchy Knights 18 23 33 -10 17
9 Launceston United 18 17 61 -44 5
10 Ulverstone 18 15 60 -45 4