Statistics / Football / Australia. Tasmania NPL / Ulverstone vs Kingborough Lions

Ulverstone vs Kingborough Lions Statistics & Analysis

Ulverstone Ulverstone
Jul 04, 2026 - 04:30
2 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 75%
Kingborough Lions Kingborough Lions
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kingborough Lions Ulverstone ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1472129

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ulverstone win · Ulverstone 2–1 Kingborough Lions
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tasmania NPL
  • Fixture: Ulverstone vs Kingborough Lions
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-04 04:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 23.8% · Draw 24.2% · Away 52.0%
  • xG (showing): Ulverstone 1.28 — Kingborough Lions 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Ulverstone & Kingborough Lions!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Tasmania NPL Tasmania NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 South Hobart 18 15 2 1 47
2 Devonport City 18 14 1 3 43
3 Kingborough Lions 18 14 1 3 43
4 Launceston City 18 10 1 7 31
5 Clarence Zebras 18 8 3 7 27
6 Riverside 18 7 3 8 24
7 South East Utd. 18 7 0 11 21
8 Glenorchy Knights 18 5 2 11 17
9 Launceston United 18 1 2 15 5
10 Ulverstone 18 1 1 16 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 South Hobart 18 65 16 +49 47
2 Devonport City 18 56 19 +37 43
3 Kingborough Lions 18 51 16 +35 43
4 Launceston City 18 40 36 +4 31
5 Riverside 18 31 33 -2 24
6 Clarence Zebras 18 30 29 +1 27
7 South East Utd. 18 26 51 -25 21
8 Glenorchy Knights 18 23 33 -10 17
9 Launceston United 18 17 61 -44 5
10 Ulverstone 18 15 60 -45 4