Statistics / Football / Australia. Tasmania NPL / Kingborough Lions vs South Hobart

Kingborough Lions vs South Hobart Statistics & Analysis

Kingborough Lions Kingborough Lions
Jun 21, 2026 - 03:15
1 1.17
1 1.43
xG Accuracy: 85%
South Hobart South Hobart
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 South Hobart Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1661697

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Kingborough Lions 1–1 South Hobart
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Kingborough Lions (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 7.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Kingborough Lions (1X2) 29.3 28.3 +1.0
Draw (1X2) 29.4 22.2 +7.2
South Hobart (1X2) 41.4 49.6 -8.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.4% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.2%. The difference — about 7.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Kingborough Lions (1X2) 3.14 3.14 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.0 4.0 0.0
South Hobart (1X2) 1.79 1.79 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tasmania NPL
  • Fixture: Kingborough Lions vs South Hobart
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-21 03:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
  • xG (showing): Kingborough Lions 1.17 — South Hobart 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 27.1% · Probability edge: +24.7 pts · Est. EV: +94.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Tasmania NPL Tasmania NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 South Hobart 18 15 2 1 47
2 Devonport City 18 14 1 3 43
3 Kingborough Lions 18 14 1 3 43
4 Launceston City 18 10 1 7 31
5 Clarence Zebras 18 8 3 7 27
6 Riverside 18 7 3 8 24
7 South East Utd. 18 7 0 11 21
8 Glenorchy Knights 18 5 2 11 17
9 Launceston United 18 1 2 15 5
10 Ulverstone 18 1 1 16 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 South Hobart 18 65 16 +49 47
2 Devonport City 18 56 19 +37 43
3 Kingborough Lions 18 51 16 +35 43
4 Launceston City 18 40 36 +4 31
5 Riverside 18 31 33 -2 24
6 Clarence Zebras 18 30 29 +1 27
7 South East Utd. 18 26 51 -25 21
8 Glenorchy Knights 18 23 33 -10 17
9 Launceston United 18 17 61 -44 5
10 Ulverstone 18 15 60 -45 4