Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Nations League / Croatia vs Spain

Croatia vs Spain Statistics & Analysis

Croatia Croatia
Oct 06, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.09
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 81%
Spain Spain
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Spain Spain ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 30, 2026 · 01:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11915722

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Spain win · Croatia 1–2 Spain
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: UEFA Nations League
  • Fixture: Croatia vs Spain
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-06 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.1% · Draw 30.8% · Away 40.2%
  • xG (showing): Croatia 1.09 — Spain 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.41)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 56.7% · Over 2.5 43.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 50.3% · No 49.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 50.3% · No 49.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.9%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Nations League UEFA Nations League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 France 4 3 1 0 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6
4 Türkiye 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Italy 4 8 5 +3 7
2 France 4 7 2 +5 10
3 Belgium 4 6 5 +1 6
4 Türkiye 4 2 11 -9 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 France 4 2.0 0.6 +1.4 10
2 Italy 4 2.0 1.4 +0.6 7
3 Türkiye 4 1.4 2.0 -0.6 0
4 Belgium 4 0.6 2.0 -1.4 6