Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Nations League / Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland Statistics & Analysis

Bosnia & Herzegovina Bosnia & Herzegovina
Oct 05, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.79
0 2.00
xG Accuracy: 46%
Poland Poland
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Poland Bosnia & Herzegovina ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11673118

Closing Odds 3.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Bosnia & Herzegovina win · Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–0 Poland
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Bosnia & Herzegovina (1X2), Poland (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Bosnia & Herzegovina (1X2) by about 1.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Bosnia & Herzegovina (1X2) 33.2 31.4 +1.9
Draw (1X2) 25.4 28.5 -3.1
Poland (1X2) 41.4 40.1 +1.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.2% on Bosnia & Herzegovina (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.4%. The difference — about 1.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Bosnia & Herzegovina (1X2) 3.0 3.0 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.3 0.0
Poland (1X2) 2.35 2.35 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: UEFA Nations League
  • Fixture: Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-05 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.2% · Draw 25.4% · Away 41.3%
  • xG (showing): Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.79 — Poland 2.0 (total xG ≈ 3.79)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 73.0% · Implied: 47.2% · Probability edge: +25.8 pts · Est. EV: +52.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 73.1% · No 26.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.1%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
UEFA Nations League UEFA Nations League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 France 4 3 1 0 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6
4 Türkiye 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Italy 4 8 5 +3 7
2 France 4 7 2 +5 10
3 Belgium 4 6 5 +1 6
4 Türkiye 4 2 11 -9 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 France 4 2.0 0.6 +1.4 10
2 Italy 4 2.0 1.4 +0.6 7
3 Türkiye 4 1.4 2.0 -0.6 0
4 Belgium 4 0.6 2.0 -1.4 6