Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Nations League / Northern Ireland vs Georgia

Northern Ireland vs Georgia Statistics & Analysis

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland
Oct 05, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.85
0 1.94
xG Accuracy: 35%
Georgia Georgia
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Northern Ireland Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11673027

Closing Odds 3.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Northern Ireland 0–0 Georgia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Georgia (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Georgia (1X2) by about 5.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Northern Ireland (1X2) 38.0 39.0 -1.0
Draw (1X2) 27.4 32.2 -4.9
Georgia (1X2) 34.6 28.8 +5.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.6% on Georgia (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.8%. The difference — about 5.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Northern Ireland (1X2) 2.4 2.4 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.9 2.9 0.0
Georgia (1X2) 3.25 3.25 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: UEFA Nations League
  • Fixture: Northern Ireland vs Georgia
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-05 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 27.4% · Away 34.6%
  • xG (showing): Northern Ireland 1.85 — Georgia 1.94 (total xG ≈ 3.79)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 73.0% · Implied: 33.8% · Probability edge: +39.2 pts · Est. EV: +110.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 73.2% · No 26.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.1%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Northern Ireland & Georgia!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
UEFA Nations League UEFA Nations League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 France 4 3 1 0 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6
4 Türkiye 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Italy 4 8 5 +3 7
2 France 4 7 2 +5 10
3 Belgium 4 6 5 +1 6
4 Türkiye 4 2 11 -9 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 France 4 2.0 0.6 +1.4 10
2 Italy 4 2.0 1.4 +0.6 7
3 Türkiye 4 1.4 2.0 -0.6 0
4 Belgium 4 0.6 2.0 -1.4 6