Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Nations League / Ukraine vs Hungary

Ukraine vs Hungary Statistics & Analysis

Ukraine Ukraine
Oct 05, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.96
2 1.83
xG Accuracy: 73%
Hungary Hungary
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ukraine Hungary ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11672938

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hungary win · Ukraine 1–2 Hungary
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: UEFA Nations League
  • Fixture: Ukraine vs Hungary
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-05 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.6% · Draw 26.9% · Away 34.5%
  • xG (showing): Ukraine 1.96 — Hungary 1.83 (total xG ≈ 3.79)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 73.0% · Implied: 40.2% · Probability edge: +32.8 pts · Est. EV: +84.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 73.2% · No 26.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.1%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Ukraine & Hungary!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
UEFA Nations League UEFA Nations League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 France 4 3 1 0 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6
4 Türkiye 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Italy 4 8 5 +3 7
2 France 4 7 2 +5 10
3 Belgium 4 6 5 +1 6
4 Türkiye 4 2 11 -9 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 France 4 2.0 0.6 +1.4 10
2 Italy 4 2.0 1.4 +0.6 7
3 Türkiye 4 1.4 2.0 -0.6 0
4 Belgium 4 0.6 2.0 -1.4 6