Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Nations League / Wales vs Denmark

Wales vs Denmark Statistics & Analysis

Wales Wales
Oct 04, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.82
1 1.97
xG Accuracy: 46%
Denmark Denmark
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Denmark Denmark ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11686804

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Denmark win · Wales 0–1 Denmark
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: UEFA Nations League
  • Fixture: Wales vs Denmark
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.3% · Draw 25.0% · Away 44.7%
  • xG (showing): Wales 1.82 — Denmark 1.97 (total xG ≈ 3.79)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 73.0% · Implied: 52.0% · Probability edge: +21.0 pts · Est. EV: +39.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 73.2% · No 26.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Nations League UEFA Nations League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 France 4 3 1 0 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6
4 Türkiye 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Italy 4 8 5 +3 7
2 France 4 7 2 +5 10
3 Belgium 4 6 5 +1 6
4 Türkiye 4 2 11 -9 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 France 4 — — — 10
2 Italy 4 — — — 7
3 Belgium 4 — — — 6
4 Türkiye 4 — — — 0