Iceland vs Bulgaria Statistics & Analysis

Iceland

Oct 03, 2026 - 16:00

3 1.91

0 1.88

xG Accuracy: 44%

Bulgaria

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Iceland Iceland ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11252997

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Iceland win · Iceland 3–0 Bulgaria

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: UEFA Nations League
Fixture: Iceland vs Bulgaria
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.9% · Draw 23.4% · Away 37.7%
xG (showing): Iceland 1.91 — Bulgaria 1.88 (total xG ≈ 3.79)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Nations League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	France	4	3	1	0	10
2	Italy	4	2	1	1	7
3	Belgium	4	2	0	2	6
4	Türkiye	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Italy	4	8	5	+3	7
2	France	4	7	2	+5	10
3	Belgium	4	6	5	+1	6
4	Türkiye	4	2	11	-9	0

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	France	4	2.0	0.6	+1.4	10
2	Italy	4	2.0	1.4	+0.6	7
3	Türkiye	4	1.4	2.0	-0.6	0
4	Belgium	4	0.6	2.0	-1.4	6