Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Nations League / Poland vs Romania

Poland vs Romania Statistics & Analysis

Poland Poland
Oct 02, 2026 - 18:45
6 1.70
0 2.09
xG Accuracy: 17%
Romania Romania
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Poland Poland ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 6-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 02:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10981946

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Poland win · Poland 6–0 Romania
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: UEFA Nations League
  • Fixture: Poland vs Romania
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.5% · Draw 24.1% · Away 32.5%
  • xG (showing): Poland 1.7 — Romania 2.09 (total xG ≈ 3.79)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 27.1% · Over 2.5 73.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 72.7% · No 27.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 72.7% · No 27.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (8.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Nations League UEFA Nations League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 France 4 3 1 0 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6
4 Türkiye 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Italy 4 8 5 +3 7
2 France 4 7 2 +5 10
3 Belgium 4 6 5 +1 6
4 Türkiye 4 2 11 -9 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 France 4 2.0 0.6 +1.4 10
2 Italy 4 2.0 1.4 +0.6 7
3 Türkiye 4 1.4 2.0 -0.6 0
4 Belgium 4 0.6 2.0 -1.4 6