Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Nations League / Kazakhstan vs Moldova

Kazakhstan vs Moldova Statistics & Analysis

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan
Oct 02, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.63
2 2.16
xG Accuracy: 80%
Moldova Moldova
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kazakhstan Moldova ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 01:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10970014

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Moldova win · Kazakhstan 1–2 Moldova
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: UEFA Nations League
  • Fixture: Kazakhstan vs Moldova
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.3% · Draw 26.6% · Away 35.1%
  • xG (showing): Kazakhstan 1.63 — Moldova 2.16 (total xG ≈ 3.79)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 73.0% · Implied: 38.9% · Probability edge: +34.1 pts · Est. EV: +86.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Nations League UEFA Nations League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 France 4 3 1 0 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6
4 Türkiye 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Italy 4 8 5 +3 7
2 France 4 7 2 +5 10
3 Belgium 4 6 5 +1 6
4 Türkiye 4 2 11 -9 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 France 4 2.0 0.6 +1.4 10
2 Italy 4 2.0 1.4 +0.6 7
3 Türkiye 4 1.4 2.0 -0.6 0
4 Belgium 4 0.6 2.0 -1.4 6