Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Nations League / Finland vs Belarus

Finland vs Belarus Statistics & Analysis

Finland Finland
Sep 29, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.75
0 2.04
xG Accuracy: 35%
Belarus Belarus
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Belarus Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 23, 2026 · 02:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10419504

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Finland 0–0 Belarus
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: UEFA Nations League
  • Fixture: Finland vs Belarus
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-29 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.7% · Draw 23.2% · Away 44.1%
  • xG (showing): Finland 1.75 — Belarus 2.04 (total xG ≈ 3.79)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 72.9% · Implied: 43.4% · Probability edge: +29.5 pts · Est. EV: +64.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Nations League UEFA Nations League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 France 4 3 1 0 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6
4 Türkiye 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Italy 4 8 5 +3 7
2 France 4 7 2 +5 10
3 Belgium 4 6 5 +1 6
4 Türkiye 4 2 11 -9 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 France 4 2.0 0.6 +1.4 10
2 Italy 4 2.0 1.4 +0.6 7
3 Türkiye 4 1.4 2.0 -0.6 0
4 Belgium 4 0.6 2.0 -1.4 6