San Marino vs Finland Statistics & Analysis

San Marino

Sep 26, 2026 - 16:00

0 1.93

7 1.86

xG Accuracy: 14%

Finland

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 San Marino Finland ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 0-7 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10114449

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Finland win · San Marino 0–7 Finland

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: UEFA Nations League
Fixture: San Marino vs Finland
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.7% · Draw 23.4% · Away 36.9%
xG (showing): San Marino 1.93 — Finland 1.86 (total xG ≈ 3.79)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 73.2% · Implied: 28.7% · Probability edge: +44.5 pts · Est. EV: +148.9%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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