Statistics / Football / China. League One / Shenzhen Juniors vs Guangzhou E-Power

Shenzhen Juniors vs Guangzhou E-Power Statistics & Analysis

Shenzhen Juniors Shenzhen Juniors
Oct 07, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.17
4 1.43
xG Accuracy: 47%
Guangzhou E-Power Guangzhou E-Power
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Guangzhou E-Power Guangzhou E-Power ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 01, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12182389

Closing Odds 2.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Guangzhou E-Power win · Shenzhen Juniors 1–4 Guangzhou E-Power
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Guangzhou E-Power (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Guangzhou E-Power (1X2) by about 5.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Shenzhen Juniors (1X2) 29.3 37.1 -7.8
Draw (1X2) 29.4 27.3 +2.1
Guangzhou E-Power (1X2) 41.4 35.6 +5.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.4% on Guangzhou E-Power (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 35.6%. The difference — about 5.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: draftkings

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Shenzhen Juniors (1X2) 2.5 2.5 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.4 3.4 0.0
Guangzhou E-Power (1X2) 2.6 2.6 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: League One
  • Fixture: Shenzhen Juniors vs Guangzhou E-Power
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-07 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
  • xG (showing): Shenzhen Juniors 1.17 — Guangzhou E-Power 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.2% · Probability edge: +7.6 pts · Est. EV: +16.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
League One League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 16 6 2 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 13 6 5 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 12 8 4 44
4 Nantong Zhiyun 24 11 9 4 42
5 Shaanxi Union 24 10 6 8 36
6 Yanbian Longding 24 9 8 7 35
7 Wuxi Wugou 24 9 5 10 32
8 Hebei Kungfu 24 8 7 9 31
9 Changchun Yatai 24 10 3 11 29
10 Ningbo Professional 24 9 5 10 29
11 Dalian Huayi 24 7 8 9 29
12 Suzhou Dongwu 24 7 8 9 26
13 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 4 11 9 23
14 Nanjing City 24 5 6 13 21
15 Meizhou Kejia 24 7 3 14 15
16 Dongguan United 24 2 7 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 48 20 +28 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 40 26 +14 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 39 25 +14 44
4 Shaanxi Union 24 38 26 +12 36
5 Changchun Yatai 24 37 40 -3 29
6 Wuxi Wugou 24 36 29 +7 32
7 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 35 46 -11 23
8 Nantong Zhiyun 24 33 20 +13 42
9 Yanbian Longding 24 33 27 +6 35
10 Dalian Huayi 24 30 36 -6 29
11 Suzhou Dongwu 24 28 33 -5 26
12 Ningbo Professional 24 27 30 -3 29
13 Meizhou Kejia 24 25 50 -25 15
14 Dongguan United 24 24 49 -25 13
15 Hebei Kungfu 24 22 25 -3 31
16 Nanjing City 24 20 33 -13 21