Statistics / Football / China. League One / Yanbian Longding vs Guangzhou E-Power

Yanbian Longding vs Guangzhou E-Power Statistics & Analysis

Yanbian Longding Yanbian Longding
Sep 18, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.38
2 1.22
xG Accuracy: 73%
Guangzhou E-Power Guangzhou E-Power
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Yanbian Longding Guangzhou E-Power ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8192612

Closing Odds 1.81
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Guangzhou E-Power win · Yanbian Longding 1–2 Guangzhou E-Power
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Yanbian Longding (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Yanbian Longding (1X2) by about 15.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Yanbian Longding (1X2) 39.0 23.9 +15.1
Draw (1X2) 29.5 25.3 +4.3
Guangzhou E-Power (1X2) 31.5 50.8 -19.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 51.7 -3.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 48.3 +3.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.0% on Yanbian Longding (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.9%. The difference — about 15.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Yanbian Longding (1X2) 3.85 3.85 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.64 3.64 0.0
Guangzhou E-Power (1X2) 1.81 1.81 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.83 1.83 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.96 1.96 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: League One
  • Fixture: Yanbian Longding vs Guangzhou E-Power
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Yanbian Longding 1.38 — Guangzhou E-Power 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Yanbian Longding
  • Model: 39.0% · Implied: 23.9% · Probability edge: +15.1 pts · Est. EV: +5.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Yanbian Longding & Guangzhou E-Power!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
League One League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 16 6 2 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 13 6 5 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 12 8 4 44
4 Nantong Zhiyun 23 10 9 4 39
5 Yanbian Longding 24 9 8 7 35
6 Shaanxi Union 23 9 6 8 33
7 Hebei Kungfu 24 8 7 9 31
8 Wuxi Wugou 23 8 5 10 29
9 Changchun Yatai 23 10 3 10 29
10 Ningbo Professional 23 9 5 9 29
11 Dalian Huayi 23 7 8 8 29
12 Suzhou Dongwu 24 7 8 9 26
13 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 4 11 9 23
14 Nanjing City 24 5 6 13 21
15 Meizhou Kejia 24 7 3 14 15
16 Dongguan United 24 2 7 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 48 20 +28 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 40 26 +14 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 39 25 +14 44
4 Changchun Yatai 23 37 38 -1 29
5 Shaanxi Union 23 35 26 +9 33
6 Wuxi Wugou 23 35 29 +6 29
7 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 35 46 -11 23
8 Yanbian Longding 24 33 27 +6 35
9 Nantong Zhiyun 23 31 20 +11 39
10 Dalian Huayi 23 30 33 -3 29
11 Suzhou Dongwu 24 28 33 -5 26
12 Ningbo Professional 23 27 29 -2 29
13 Meizhou Kejia 24 25 50 -25 15
14 Dongguan United 24 24 49 -25 13
15 Hebei Kungfu 24 22 25 -3 31
16 Nanjing City 24 20 33 -13 21