Statistics / Football / China. League One / Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Dalian Huayi

Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Dalian Huayi Statistics & Analysis

Heilongjiang Lava Spring Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Aug 08, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 77%
Dalian Huayi Dalian Huayi
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Heilongjiang Lava Spring Heilongjiang Lava Spring ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2813184

Closing Odds 2.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Heilongjiang Lava Spring win · Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2–1 Dalian Huayi
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.85 percentage points on Heilongjiang Lava Spring (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Dalian Huayi (1X2) by about 6.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (1X2) 36.1 44.1 -8.1
Draw (1X2) 29.7 27.8 +1.8
Dalian Huayi (1X2) 34.2 28.0 +6.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.2 -6.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 45.8 +6.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Dalian Huayi (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.0%. The difference — about 6.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (1X2) 2.36 2.1 +4.8
Draw (1X2) 3.32 3.33 -0.1
Dalian Huayi (1X2) 2.83 3.31 -4.8
Over 2.5 goals 1.74 1.74 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.06 2.06 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: League One
  • Fixture: Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Dalian Huayi
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1.32 — Dalian Huayi 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.2% · Probability edge: +4.6 pts · Est. EV: +6.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
League One League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 16 6 2 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 13 6 5 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 12 8 4 44
4 Nantong Zhiyun 23 10 9 4 39
5 Yanbian Longding 24 9 8 7 35
6 Shaanxi Union 23 9 6 8 33
7 Hebei Kungfu 24 8 7 9 31
8 Wuxi Wugou 23 8 5 10 29
9 Changchun Yatai 23 10 3 10 29
10 Ningbo Professional 23 9 5 9 29
11 Dalian Huayi 23 7 8 8 29
12 Suzhou Dongwu 24 7 8 9 26
13 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 4 11 9 23
14 Nanjing City 24 5 6 13 21
15 Meizhou Kejia 24 7 3 14 15
16 Dongguan United 24 2 7 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 48 20 +28 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 40 26 +14 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 39 25 +14 44
4 Changchun Yatai 23 37 38 -1 29
5 Shaanxi Union 23 35 26 +9 33
6 Wuxi Wugou 23 35 29 +6 29
7 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 35 46 -11 23
8 Yanbian Longding 24 33 27 +6 35
9 Nantong Zhiyun 23 31 20 +11 39
10 Dalian Huayi 23 30 33 -3 29
11 Suzhou Dongwu 24 28 33 -5 26
12 Ningbo Professional 23 27 29 -2 29
13 Meizhou Kejia 24 25 50 -25 15
14 Dongguan United 24 24 49 -25 13
15 Hebei Kungfu 24 22 25 -3 31
16 Nanjing City 24 20 33 -13 21
League One China. League One Predictions