Statistics / Football / Kazakhstan. Premier League / Ulytau vs Okzhetpes

Ulytau vs Okzhetpes Statistics & Analysis

Ulytau Ulytau
Oct 11, 2026 - 10:00
2 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 57%
Okzhetpes Okzhetpes
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Okzhetpes Ulytau ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13190805

Closing Odds 2.12
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ulytau win · Ulytau 2–0 Okzhetpes
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.06 percentage points on Draw (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 7.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ulytau (1X2) 34.7 34.2 +0.6
Draw (1X2) 29.7 22.5 +7.2
Okzhetpes (1X2) 35.6 43.4 -7.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.5%. The difference — about 7.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: betfair → ggbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ulytau (1X2) 2.8 2.69 +2.2
Draw (1X2) 3.5 4.09 -3.1
Okzhetpes (1X2) 2.1 2.12 +0.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Ulytau vs Okzhetpes
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Ulytau 1.29 — Okzhetpes 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.2% · Probability edge: +6.6 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ordabasy 25 18 4 3 58
2 Kairat Almaty 25 17 6 2 57
3 FC Astana 24 13 6 5 45
4 Okzhetpes 26 13 6 7 45
5 Aktobe 26 12 6 8 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 10 8 7 38
7 FK Tobol Kostanay 26 10 4 12 34
8 Zhenys 26 8 8 10 32
9 Ulytau 26 8 8 10 32
10 Kaspiy 26 8 5 13 29
11 Irtysh 25 6 8 11 26
12 Kyzyl-Zhar 26 6 7 13 25
13 Kaisar 26 4 12 10 24
14 Atyrau 24 4 11 9 23
15 Altay 26 5 8 13 23
16 Zhetysu 26 5 7 14 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kairat Almaty 25 51 19 +32 57
2 Ordabasy 25 48 18 +30 58
3 FC Astana 24 41 25 +16 45
4 Okzhetpes 26 41 35 +6 45
5 Aktobe 26 38 31 +7 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 35 33 +2 38
7 FK Tobol Kostanay 26 33 35 -2 34
8 Kyzyl-Zhar 26 28 39 -11 25
9 Kaspiy 26 27 36 -9 29
10 Zhenys 26 26 32 -6 32
11 Irtysh 25 26 34 -8 26
12 Zhetysu 26 26 44 -18 22
13 Altay 26 25 38 -13 23
14 Ulytau 26 24 32 -8 32
15 Kaisar 26 22 33 -11 24
16 Atyrau 24 18 25 -7 23
Premier League Kazakhstan. Premier League Predictions