Aktobe vs Ulytau Statistics & Analysis

Aktobe

Sep 18, 2026 - 15:00

2 1.46

2 1.14

xG Accuracy: 68%

Ulytau

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Aktobe Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8201912

Closing Odds 1.49

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Aktobe 2–2 Ulytau

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Ulytau (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ulytau (1X2) by about 11.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Aktobe (1X2)	42.9	60.8	-17.9
Draw (1X2)	29.2	22.6	+6.6
Ulytau (1X2)	27.9	16.6	+11.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	52.8	-4.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	47.2	+4.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.9% on Ulytau (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.6%. The difference — about 11.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Aktobe (1X2)	1.49	1.49
Draw (1X2)	4.0	4.0
Ulytau (1X2)	5.46	5.46
Over 2.5 goals	1.78	1.78
Under 2.5 goals	1.99	1.99

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Aktobe vs Ulytau
Kickoff: 2026-09-18 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
xG (showing): Aktobe 1.46 — Ulytau 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Ordabasy	25	18	4	3	58
2	Kairat Almaty	25	17	6	2	57
3	FC Astana	24	13	6	5	45
4	Okzhetpes	26	13	6	7	45
5	Aktobe	26	12	6	8	42
6	Yelimay Semey	25	10	8	7	38
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	26	10	4	12	34
8	Zhenys	26	8	8	10	32
9	Ulytau	26	8	8	10	32
10	Kaspiy	26	8	5	13	29
11	Irtysh	25	6	8	11	26
12	Kyzyl-Zhar	26	6	7	13	25
13	Kaisar	26	4	12	10	24
14	Atyrau	24	4	11	9	23
15	Altay	26	5	8	13	23
16	Zhetysu	26	5	7	14	22

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Kairat Almaty	25	51	19	+32	57
2	Ordabasy	25	48	18	+30	58
3	FC Astana	24	41	25	+16	45
4	Okzhetpes	26	41	35	+6	45
5	Aktobe	26	38	31	+7	42
6	Yelimay Semey	25	35	33	+2	38
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	26	33	35	-2	34
8	Kyzyl-Zhar	26	28	39	-11	25
9	Kaspiy	26	27	36	-9	29
10	Zhenys	26	26	32	-6	32
11	Irtysh	25	26	34	-8	26
12	Zhetysu	26	26	44	-18	22
13	Altay	26	25	38	-13	23
14	Ulytau	26	24	32	-8	32
15	Kaisar	26	22	33	-11	24
16	Atyrau	24	18	25	-7	23