Atyrau vs FC Astana Statistics & Analysis

Atyrau

Aug 30, 2026 - 15:00

2 1.18

3 1.42

xG Accuracy: 52%

FC Astana

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 FC Astana FC Astana ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5297382

Closing Odds 1.55

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result FC Astana win · Atyrau 2–3 FC Astana

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Atyrau (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Atyrau (1X2) by about 12.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Atyrau (1X2)	29.6	17.2	+12.5
Draw (1X2)	29.4	24.4	+4.9
FC Astana (1X2)	41.0	58.4	-17.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	48.7	-0.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	51.3	+0.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Atyrau (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.2%. The difference — about 12.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Atyrau (1X2)	5.27	5.27
Draw (1X2)	3.7	3.7
FC Astana (1X2)	1.55	1.55
Over 2.5 goals	1.93	1.93
Under 2.5 goals	1.83	1.83

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Atyrau vs FC Astana
Kickoff: 2026-08-30 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
xG (showing): Atyrau 1.18 — FC Astana 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Ordabasy	25	18	4	3	58
2	Kairat Almaty	24	17	6	1	57
3	FC Astana	24	13	6	5	45
4	Okzhetpes	24	12	6	6	42
5	Aktobe	25	12	5	8	41
6	Yelimay Semey	24	9	8	7	35
7	Zhenys	25	8	8	9	32
8	FK Tobol Kostanay	24	9	4	11	31
9	Ulytau	24	8	7	9	31
10	Kaspiy	25	7	5	13	26
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	25	6	6	13	24
12	Atyrau	24	4	11	9	23
13	Kaisar	25	4	11	10	23
14	Zhetysu	25	5	7	13	22
15	Irtysh	23	4	8	11	20
16	Altay	24	4	8	12	20

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Kairat Almaty	24	50	15	+35	57
2	Ordabasy	25	48	18	+30	58
3	FC Astana	24	41	25	+16	45
4	Okzhetpes	24	37	32	+5	42
5	Aktobe	25	36	29	+7	41
6	Yelimay Semey	24	33	33	0	35
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	24	29	32	-3	31
8	Kyzyl-Zhar	25	27	38	-11	24
9	Kaspiy	25	26	36	-10	26
10	Zhetysu	25	26	43	-17	22
11	Zhenys	25	25	29	-4	32
12	Ulytau	24	22	27	-5	31
13	Irtysh	23	22	32	-10	20
14	Kaisar	25	21	32	-11	23
15	Altay	24	21	36	-15	20
16	Atyrau	24	18	25	-7	23