Statistics / Football / Kazakhstan. Premier League / FK Tobol Kostanay vs Atyrau

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Atyrau Statistics & Analysis

FK Tobol Kostanay FK Tobol Kostanay
Jul 26, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.41
0 1.19
xG Accuracy: 64%
Atyrau Atyrau
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FK Tobol Kostanay FK Tobol Kostanay ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454215

Closing Odds 1.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result FK Tobol Kostanay win · FK Tobol Kostanay 1–0 Atyrau
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Atyrau (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FK Tobol Kostanay (1X2) 45.9 59.6 -13.7
Draw (1X2) 28.0 23.5 +4.5
Atyrau (1X2) 26.1 16.9 +9.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 58.6 -10.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 41.4 +10.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.4%. The difference — about 10.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
FK Tobol Kostanay (1X2) 1.5 1.5 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.81 3.81 0.0
Atyrau (1X2) 5.3 5.3 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.56 1.56 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.21 2.21 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Kazakhstan Premier League
  • Fixture: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Atyrau
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.9% · Draw 28.0% · Away 26.1%
  • xG (showing): FK Tobol Kostanay 1.41 — Atyrau 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.4% · Probability edge: +9.4 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ordabasy 25 18 4 3 58
2 Kairat Almaty 24 17 6 1 57
3 FC Astana 24 13 6 5 45
4 Okzhetpes 24 12 6 6 42
5 Aktobe 25 12 5 8 41
6 Yelimay Semey 24 9 8 7 35
7 Zhenys 25 8 8 9 32
8 FK Tobol Kostanay 24 9 4 11 31
9 Ulytau 24 8 7 9 31
10 Kaspiy 25 7 5 13 26
11 Kyzyl-Zhar 25 6 6 13 24
12 Atyrau 24 4 11 9 23
13 Kaisar 25 4 11 10 23
14 Zhetysu 25 5 7 13 22
15 Irtysh 23 4 8 11 20
16 Altay 24 4 8 12 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kairat Almaty 24 50 15 +35 57
2 Ordabasy 25 48 18 +30 58
3 FC Astana 24 41 25 +16 45
4 Okzhetpes 24 37 32 +5 42
5 Aktobe 25 36 29 +7 41
6 Yelimay Semey 24 33 33 0 35
7 FK Tobol Kostanay 24 29 32 -3 31
8 Kyzyl-Zhar 25 27 38 -11 24
9 Kaspiy 25 26 36 -10 26
10 Zhetysu 25 26 43 -17 22
11 Zhenys 25 25 29 -4 32
12 Ulytau 24 22 27 -5 31
13 Irtysh 23 22 32 -10 20
14 Kaisar 25 21 32 -11 23
15 Altay 24 21 36 -15 20
16 Atyrau 24 18 25 -7 23
Premier League Kazakhstan. Premier League Predictions