Statistics / Football / Kazakhstan. Premier League / FC Astana vs Irtysh

FC Astana vs Irtysh Statistics & Analysis

FC Astana FC Astana
Jun 14, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.45
0 1.15
xG Accuracy: 63%
Irtysh Irtysh
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FC Astana FC Astana ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 02:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1667897

Closing Odds 1.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result FC Astana win · FC Astana 2–0 Irtysh
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 5.21 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Irtysh (1X2) by about 9.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FC Astana (1X2) 49.1 65.0 -15.9
Draw (1X2) 27.2 21.2 +6.0
Irtysh (1X2) 23.7 13.8 +9.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 53.3 -5.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.7 +5.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 23.7% on Irtysh (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 13.8%. The difference — about 9.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FC Astana (1X2) 1.39 1.41 +0.1
Draw (1X2) 4.36 4.33 +0.5
Irtysh (1X2) 6.3 6.63 -0.5
Over 2.5 goals 1.58 1.76 -5.2
Under 2.5 goals 2.23 2.01 +5.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: FC Astana vs Irtysh
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-14 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 49.1% · Draw 27.2% · Away 23.7%
  • xG (showing): FC Astana 1.45 — Irtysh 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ordabasy 25 18 4 3 58
2 Kairat Almaty 25 17 6 2 57
3 FC Astana 24 13 6 5 45
4 Okzhetpes 26 13 6 7 45
5 Aktobe 26 12 6 8 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 10 8 7 38
7 FK Tobol Kostanay 26 10 4 12 34
8 Zhenys 26 8 8 10 32
9 Ulytau 26 8 8 10 32
10 Kaspiy 26 8 5 13 29
11 Irtysh 25 6 8 11 26
12 Kyzyl-Zhar 26 6 7 13 25
13 Kaisar 26 4 12 10 24
14 Atyrau 24 4 11 9 23
15 Altay 26 5 8 13 23
16 Zhetysu 26 5 7 14 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kairat Almaty 25 51 19 +32 57
2 Ordabasy 25 48 18 +30 58
3 FC Astana 24 41 25 +16 45
4 Okzhetpes 26 41 35 +6 45
5 Aktobe 26 38 31 +7 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 35 33 +2 38
7 FK Tobol Kostanay 26 33 35 -2 34
8 Kyzyl-Zhar 26 28 39 -11 25
9 Kaspiy 26 27 36 -9 29
10 Zhenys 26 26 32 -6 32
11 Irtysh 25 26 34 -8 26
12 Zhetysu 26 26 44 -18 22
13 Altay 26 25 38 -13 23
14 Ulytau 26 24 32 -8 32
15 Kaisar 26 22 33 -11 24
16 Atyrau 24 18 25 -7 23