Statistics / Football / Australia. South Australia State League 1 / Fulham United vs Eastern United

Fulham United vs Eastern United Statistics & Analysis

Fulham United Fulham United
Aug 01, 2026 - 05:30
1 1.43
2 1.17
xG Accuracy: 71%
Eastern United Eastern United
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fulham United Eastern United ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1782927

Closing Odds 1.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Eastern United win · Fulham United 1–2 Eastern United
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.82 percentage points on Draw (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Fulham United (1X2) 48.8 64.9 -16.1
Draw (1X2) 26.2 18.3 +7.8
Eastern United (1X2) 25.1 16.7 +8.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.8 -18.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.2 +18.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.2%. The difference — about 18.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Fulham United (1X2) 1.38 1.41 -0.6
Draw (1X2) 5.16 4.99 +0.8
Eastern United (1X2) 5.33 5.47 -0.2
Over 2.5 goals 1.39 1.39 +0.4
Under 2.5 goals 2.75 2.8 -0.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: South Australia State League 1
  • Fixture: Fulham United vs Eastern United
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 05:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 48.8% · Draw 26.2% · Away 25.1%
  • xG (showing): Fulham United 1.43 — Eastern United 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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South Australia State League 1 South Australia State League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Adelaide Raiders 22 15 2 5 47
2 Modbury Jets 22 13 5 4 44
3 Adelaide Olympic 22 14 1 7 43
4 Fulham United 22 11 4 7 37
5 Adelaide Blue Eagles 22 10 6 6 36
6 Adelaide Victory 22 11 3 8 36
7 Cumberland United 22 11 1 10 34
8 The Cove 22 7 5 10 26
9 Eastern United 22 6 4 12 22
10 Adelaide Cobras 22 6 2 14 20
11 Salisbury United 22 5 2 15 17
12 South Adelaide Panthers 22 4 3 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Adelaide Raiders 22 56 26 +30 47
2 Modbury Jets 22 46 20 +26 44
3 Adelaide Olympic 22 42 25 +17 43
4 Fulham United 22 42 31 +11 37
5 Adelaide Victory 22 40 34 +6 36
6 Cumberland United 22 36 28 +8 34
7 Adelaide Blue Eagles 22 36 29 +7 36
8 The Cove 22 29 36 -7 26
9 Salisbury United 22 28 48 -20 17
10 South Adelaide Panthers 22 26 62 -36 15
11 Eastern United 22 25 44 -19 22
12 Adelaide Cobras 22 22 45 -23 20