Statistics / Football / Australia. South Australia State League 1 / Adelaide Raiders vs Eastern United

Adelaide Raiders vs Eastern United Statistics & Analysis

Adelaide Raiders Adelaide Raiders
Jul 18, 2026 - 05:30
3 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 44%
Eastern United Eastern United
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Adelaide Raiders Adelaide Raiders ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 15:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1611716

Closing Odds 1.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Adelaide Raiders win · Adelaide Raiders 3–0 Eastern United
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.83 percentage points on Adelaide Raiders (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 19.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Adelaide Raiders (1X2) 45.1 63.6 -18.5
Draw (1X2) 26.5 18.1 +8.4
Eastern United (1X2) 28.4 18.3 +10.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 67.8 -19.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 32.1 +19.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.1%. The difference — about 19.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Adelaide Raiders (1X2) 1.36 1.44 -2.8
Draw (1X2) 5.24 5.06 +0.9
Eastern United (1X2) 5.54 5.01 +2.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.36 1.36 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.87 2.87 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: South Australia State League 1
  • Fixture: Adelaide Raiders vs Eastern United
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 05:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.1% · Draw 26.5% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Adelaide Raiders 1.32 — Eastern United 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
South Australia State League 1 South Australia State League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Adelaide Raiders 22 15 2 5 47
2 Modbury Jets 22 13 5 4 44
3 Adelaide Olympic 22 14 1 7 43
4 Fulham United 22 11 4 7 37
5 Adelaide Blue Eagles 22 10 6 6 36
6 Adelaide Victory 22 11 3 8 36
7 Cumberland United 22 11 1 10 34
8 The Cove 22 7 5 10 26
9 Eastern United 22 6 4 12 22
10 Adelaide Cobras 22 6 2 14 20
11 Salisbury United 22 5 2 15 17
12 South Adelaide Panthers 22 4 3 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Adelaide Raiders 22 56 26 +30 47
2 Modbury Jets 22 46 20 +26 44
3 Adelaide Olympic 22 42 25 +17 43
4 Fulham United 22 42 31 +11 37
5 Adelaide Victory 22 40 34 +6 36
6 Cumberland United 22 36 28 +8 34
7 Adelaide Blue Eagles 22 36 29 +7 36
8 The Cove 22 29 36 -7 26
9 Salisbury United 22 28 48 -20 17
10 South Adelaide Panthers 22 26 62 -36 15
11 Eastern United 22 25 44 -19 22
12 Adelaide Cobras 22 22 45 -23 20