Statistics / Football / Australia. South Australia State League 1 / Adelaide Cobras vs Fulham United

Adelaide Cobras vs Fulham United Statistics & Analysis

Adelaide Cobras Adelaide Cobras
Jul 04, 2026 - 05:30
0 1.16
3 1.44
xG Accuracy: 47%
Fulham United Fulham United
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Fulham United Fulham United ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 19:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1756339

Closing Odds 1.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Fulham United win · Adelaide Cobras 0–3 Fulham United
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Adelaide Cobras (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 15.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Adelaide Cobras (1X2) 27.0 22.9 +4.1
Draw (1X2) 27.3 21.9 +5.4
Fulham United (1X2) 45.7 55.2 -9.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 63.9 -15.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 36.1 +15.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.1%. The difference — about 15.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Adelaide Cobras (1X2) 3.93 4.0 -0.1
Draw (1X2) 4.11 4.19 -0.2
Fulham United (1X2) 1.65 1.66 +0.3
Over 2.5 goals 1.45 1.46 +0.1
Under 2.5 goals 2.55 2.58 -0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: South Australia State League 1
  • Fixture: Adelaide Cobras vs Fulham United
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-04 05:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.0% · Draw 27.3% · Away 45.7%
  • xG (showing): Adelaide Cobras 1.16 — Fulham United 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.8% · Probability edge: +15.0 pts · Est. EV: +33.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
South Australia State League 1 South Australia State League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Adelaide Raiders 22 15 2 5 47
2 Modbury Jets 22 13 5 4 44
3 Adelaide Olympic 22 14 1 7 43
4 Fulham United 22 11 4 7 37
5 Adelaide Blue Eagles 22 10 6 6 36
6 Adelaide Victory 22 11 3 8 36
7 Cumberland United 22 11 1 10 34
8 The Cove 22 7 5 10 26
9 Eastern United 22 6 4 12 22
10 Adelaide Cobras 22 6 2 14 20
11 Salisbury United 22 5 2 15 17
12 South Adelaide Panthers 22 4 3 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Adelaide Raiders 22 56 26 +30 47
2 Modbury Jets 22 46 20 +26 44
3 Adelaide Olympic 22 42 25 +17 43
4 Fulham United 22 42 31 +11 37
5 Adelaide Victory 22 40 34 +6 36
6 Cumberland United 22 36 28 +8 34
7 Adelaide Blue Eagles 22 36 29 +7 36
8 The Cove 22 29 36 -7 26
9 Salisbury United 22 28 48 -20 17
10 South Adelaide Panthers 22 26 62 -36 15
11 Eastern United 22 25 44 -19 22
12 Adelaide Cobras 22 22 45 -23 20