Statistics / Football / Australia. South Australia State League 1 / Modbury Jets vs Adelaide Blue Eagles

Modbury Jets vs Adelaide Blue Eagles Statistics & Analysis

Modbury Jets Modbury Jets
Jun 20, 2026 - 05:30
1 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 85%
Adelaide Blue Eagles Adelaide Blue Eagles
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Modbury Jets Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 10:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3043053

Closing Odds 1.91
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Modbury Jets 1–1 Adelaide Blue Eagles
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Adelaide Blue Eagles (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Modbury Jets (1X2) 37.7 47.4 -9.6
Draw (1X2) 28.2 24.1 +4.0
Adelaide Blue Eagles (1X2) 34.1 28.5 +5.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 59.5 -11.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 40.5 +11.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.5%. The difference — about 11.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Modbury Jets (1X2) 1.91 1.91 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.75 3.75 0.0
Adelaide Blue Eagles (1X2) 3.17 3.17 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.55 1.55 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.28 2.28 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: South Australia State League 1
  • Fixture: Modbury Jets vs Adelaide Blue Eagles
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-20 05:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.7% · Draw 28.2% · Away 34.1%
  • xG (showing): Modbury Jets 1.27 — Adelaide Blue Eagles 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.5% · Probability edge: +11.3 pts · Est. EV: +19.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
South Australia State League 1 South Australia State League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Adelaide Raiders 22 15 2 5 47
2 Modbury Jets 22 13 5 4 44
3 Adelaide Olympic 22 14 1 7 43
4 Fulham United 22 11 4 7 37
5 Adelaide Blue Eagles 22 10 6 6 36
6 Adelaide Victory 22 11 3 8 36
7 Cumberland United 22 11 1 10 34
8 The Cove 22 7 5 10 26
9 Eastern United 22 6 4 12 22
10 Adelaide Cobras 22 6 2 14 20
11 Salisbury United 22 5 2 15 17
12 South Adelaide Panthers 22 4 3 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Adelaide Raiders 22 56 26 +30 47
2 Modbury Jets 22 46 20 +26 44
3 Adelaide Olympic 22 42 25 +17 43
4 Fulham United 22 42 31 +11 37
5 Adelaide Victory 22 40 34 +6 36
6 Cumberland United 22 36 28 +8 34
7 Adelaide Blue Eagles 22 36 29 +7 36
8 The Cove 22 29 36 -7 26
9 Salisbury United 22 28 48 -20 17
10 South Adelaide Panthers 22 26 62 -36 15
11 Eastern United 22 25 44 -19 22
12 Adelaide Cobras 22 22 45 -23 20