Statistics / Football / Australia. South Australia NPL / Sturt Lions vs Adelaide Comets

Sturt Lions vs Adelaide Comets Statistics & Analysis

Sturt Lions Sturt Lions
Aug 11, 2026 - 10:30
0 1.33
0 1.27
xG Accuracy: 49%
Adelaide Comets Adelaide Comets
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sturt Lions Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1782749

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Sturt Lions 0–0 Adelaide Comets
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Adelaide Comets (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sturt Lions (1X2) 40.8 51.1 -10.3
Draw (1X2) 28.1 22.9 +5.2
Adelaide Comets (1X2) 31.1 26.0 +5.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 60.1 -11.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 39.9 +11.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.9%. The difference — about 11.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Sturt Lions (1X2) 1.79 1.79 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.99 3.99 0.0
Adelaide Comets (1X2) 3.52 3.52 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.55 1.55 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.34 2.34 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: South Australia NPL
  • Fixture: Sturt Lions vs Adelaide Comets
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 05:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.8% · Draw 28.1% · Away 31.1%
  • xG (showing): Sturt Lions 1.33 — Adelaide Comets 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.1% · Probability edge: +11.7 pts · Est. EV: +26.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Sturt Lions & Adelaide Comets!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
South Australia NPL South Australia NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Adelaide City 22 14 6 2 48
2 West Torrens Birkalla 22 14 3 5 45
3 MetroStars 22 13 5 4 44
4 Playford City Patriots 22 10 5 7 35
5 White City Woodville 22 10 3 9 33
6 Croydon Kings 22 8 6 8 30
7 Adelaide United II 22 7 8 7 29
8 Campbelltown City 22 8 5 9 29
9 Sturt Lions 22 8 3 11 27
10 West Adelaide 22 6 7 9 25
11 Adelaide Comets 22 5 5 12 20
12 Para Hills Knights 22 0 2 20 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 West Torrens Birkalla 22 54 29 +25 45
2 MetroStars 22 53 23 +30 44
3 Croydon Kings 22 46 41 +5 30
4 Adelaide City 22 44 16 +28 48
5 Playford City Patriots 22 42 31 +11 35
6 West Adelaide 22 40 44 -4 25
7 White City Woodville 22 35 30 +5 33
8 Campbelltown City 22 35 36 -1 29
9 Sturt Lions 22 35 36 -1 27
10 Adelaide United II 22 33 32 +1 29
11 Adelaide Comets 22 25 38 -13 20
12 Para Hills Knights 22 16 102 -86 2