Statistics / Football / Australia. South Australia NPL / MetroStars vs Sturt Lions

MetroStars vs Sturt Lions Statistics & Analysis

MetroStars MetroStars
Jun 13, 2026 - 07:45
1 1.45
0 1.15
xG Accuracy: 64%
Sturt Lions Sturt Lions
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 MetroStars MetroStars ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 08:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1691277

Closing Odds 1.31
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result MetroStars win · MetroStars 1–0 Sturt Lions
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.88 percentage points on MetroStars (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sturt Lions (1X2) by about 15.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
MetroStars (1X2) 42.4 70.9 -28.5
Draw (1X2) 29.2 16.6 +12.6
Sturt Lions (1X2) 28.4 12.5 +15.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.4% on Sturt Lions (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 12.5%. The difference — about 15.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
MetroStars (1X2) 1.33 1.31 +1.9
Draw (1X2) 5.34 5.59 -0.6
Sturt Lions (1X2) 6.64 7.42 -1.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: South Australia NPL
  • Fixture: MetroStars vs Sturt Lions
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 07:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): MetroStars 1.45 — Sturt Lions 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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South Australia NPL South Australia NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Adelaide City 22 14 6 2 48
2 West Torrens Birkalla 22 14 3 5 45
3 MetroStars 22 13 5 4 44
4 Playford City Patriots 22 10 5 7 35
5 White City Woodville 22 10 3 9 33
6 Croydon Kings 22 8 6 8 30
7 Adelaide United II 22 7 8 7 29
8 Campbelltown City 22 8 5 9 29
9 Sturt Lions 22 8 3 11 27
10 West Adelaide 22 6 7 9 25
11 Adelaide Comets 22 5 5 12 20
12 Para Hills Knights 22 0 2 20 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 West Torrens Birkalla 22 54 29 +25 45
2 MetroStars 22 53 23 +30 44
3 Croydon Kings 22 46 41 +5 30
4 Adelaide City 22 44 16 +28 48
5 Playford City Patriots 22 42 31 +11 35
6 West Adelaide 22 40 44 -4 25
7 White City Woodville 22 35 30 +5 33
8 Campbelltown City 22 35 36 -1 29
9 Sturt Lions 22 35 36 -1 27
10 Adelaide United II 22 33 32 +1 29
11 Adelaide Comets 22 25 38 -13 20
12 Para Hills Knights 22 16 102 -86 2