Toti City vs Tupapa Maraerenga Statistics & Analysis

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Toti City

Aug 09, 2026 - 00:00

4 1.41

1 1.19

xG Accuracy: 47%

Tupapa Maraerenga

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Toti City Toti City ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 00:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2959292

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Toti City win · Toti City 4–1 Tupapa Maraerenga

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: OFC Champions League
Fixture: Toti City vs Tupapa Maraerenga
Kickoff: 2026-08-09 03:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
xG (showing): Toti City 1.41 — Tupapa Maraerenga 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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