Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie C / Maranhão vs Ypiranga-RS

Maranhão vs Ypiranga-RS Statistics & Analysis

Maranhão Maranhão
Jul 12, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 77%
Ypiranga-RS Ypiranga-RS
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Maranhão Maranhão ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 20:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2898394

Closing Odds 3.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Maranhão win · Maranhão 2–1 Ypiranga-RS
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Ypiranga-RS (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 7.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Maranhão (1X2) 37.4 39.1 -1.7
Draw (1X2) 30.2 32.2 -2.0
Ypiranga-RS (1X2) 32.4 28.6 +3.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 40.3 +7.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 59.7 -7.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.3%. The difference — about 7.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Maranhão (1X2) 2.34 2.34 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.84 2.84 0.0
Ypiranga-RS (1X2) 3.2 3.2 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.33 2.33 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.57 1.57 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie C
  • Fixture: Maranhão vs Ypiranga-RS
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-12 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.4% · Draw 30.2% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Maranhão 1.33 — Ypiranga-RS 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 40.3% · Probability edge: +7.9 pts · Est. EV: +15.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Maranhão & Ypiranga-RS!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Serie C Serie C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Botafogo PB 19 10 3 6 33
2 Brusque 19 9 5 5 32
3 Ferroviária 19 8 6 5 30
4 Maringá 19 8 6 5 30
5 Floresta 19 8 6 5 30
6 Inter De Limeira 19 8 6 5 30
7 Paysandu 19 9 2 8 29
8 Santa Cruz 19 8 5 6 29
9 Ypiranga-RS 19 8 5 6 29
10 Guarani Campinas 19 7 7 5 28
11 Figueirense 19 7 7 5 28
12 Maranhão 19 7 6 6 27
13 Amazonas 19 7 5 7 26
14 Caxias 19 6 7 6 25
15 Ituano 19 6 4 9 22
16 Volta Redonda 19 6 3 10 21
17 Barra 19 5 6 8 21
18 Anápolis 19 5 4 10 19
19 AO Itabaiana 19 4 5 10 17
20 Confiança 19 3 4 12 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guarani Campinas 19 34 24 +10 28
2 Maringá 19 32 30 +2 30
3 Botafogo PB 19 28 19 +9 33
4 Brusque 19 28 22 +6 32
5 Ypiranga-RS 19 27 24 +3 29
6 Paysandu 19 26 27 -1 29
7 Ferroviária 19 22 15 +7 30
8 Floresta 19 22 20 +2 30
9 Inter De Limeira 19 22 20 +2 30
10 Barra 19 21 21 0 21
11 Amazonas 19 21 23 -2 26
12 Santa Cruz 19 20 15 +5 29
13 Maranhão 19 19 18 +1 27
14 Figueirense 19 19 22 -3 28
15 Ituano 19 18 21 -3 22
16 Caxias 19 17 16 +1 25
17 Anápolis 19 17 22 -5 19
18 AO Itabaiana 19 14 27 -13 17
19 Volta Redonda 19 13 25 -12 21
20 Confiança 19 11 20 -9 13
Serie C Brazil. Serie C Predictions