Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie C / Ypiranga-RS vs Botafogo PB

Ypiranga-RS vs Botafogo PB Statistics & Analysis

Ypiranga-RS Ypiranga-RS
Jun 15, 2026 - 23:30
1 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 85%
Botafogo PB Botafogo PB
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ypiranga-RS Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 07:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1561481

Closing Odds 2.21
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Ypiranga-RS 1–1 Botafogo PB
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.04 percentage points on Ypiranga-RS (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Botafogo PB (1X2) by about 4.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ypiranga-RS (1X2) 35.2 41.5 -6.3
Draw (1X2) 29.6 27.5 +2.1
Botafogo PB (1X2) 35.2 31.0 +4.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 51.7 -3.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 48.3 +3.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.2% on Botafogo PB (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.0%. The difference — about 4.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ypiranga-RS (1X2) 2.25 2.21 +1.0
Draw (1X2) 3.27 3.33 -0.3
Botafogo PB (1X2) 2.87 2.96 -0.7
Over 2.5 goals 1.81 1.83 -0.4
Under 2.5 goals 1.97 1.96 +0.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie C
  • Fixture: Ypiranga-RS vs Botafogo PB
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-15 23:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Ypiranga-RS 1.3 — Botafogo PB 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.3% · Probability edge: +3.5 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C Serie C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Botafogo PB 19 10 3 6 33
2 Brusque 19 9 5 5 32
3 Ferroviária 19 8 6 5 30
4 Maringá 19 8 6 5 30
5 Floresta 19 8 6 5 30
6 Inter De Limeira 19 8 6 5 30
7 Paysandu 19 9 2 8 29
8 Santa Cruz 19 8 5 6 29
9 Ypiranga-RS 19 8 5 6 29
10 Guarani Campinas 19 7 7 5 28
11 Figueirense 19 7 7 5 28
12 Maranhão 19 7 6 6 27
13 Amazonas 19 7 5 7 26
14 Caxias 19 6 7 6 25
15 Ituano 19 6 4 9 22
16 Volta Redonda 19 6 3 10 21
17 Barra 19 5 6 8 21
18 Anápolis 19 5 4 10 19
19 AO Itabaiana 19 4 5 10 17
20 Confiança 19 3 4 12 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guarani Campinas 19 34 24 +10 28
2 Maringá 19 32 30 +2 30
3 Botafogo PB 19 28 19 +9 33
4 Brusque 19 28 22 +6 32
5 Ypiranga-RS 19 27 24 +3 29
6 Paysandu 19 26 27 -1 29
7 Ferroviária 19 22 15 +7 30
8 Floresta 19 22 20 +2 30
9 Inter De Limeira 19 22 20 +2 30
10 Barra 19 21 21 0 21
11 Amazonas 19 21 23 -2 26
12 Santa Cruz 19 20 15 +5 29
13 Maranhão 19 19 18 +1 27
14 Figueirense 19 19 22 -3 28
15 Ituano 19 18 21 -3 22
16 Caxias 19 17 16 +1 25
17 Anápolis 19 17 22 -5 19
18 AO Itabaiana 19 14 27 -13 17
19 Volta Redonda 19 13 25 -12 21
20 Confiança 19 11 20 -9 13
Serie C Brazil. Serie C Predictions