Statistics / Football / Russia. Second League A - Division A Silver / Urozhay vs Tyumen

Urozhay vs Tyumen Statistics & Analysis

Urozhay Urozhay
Jun 06, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.34
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 65%
Tyumen Tyumen
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tyumen Urozhay ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2532113

Closing Odds 1.37
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Urozhay win · Urozhay 1–0 Tyumen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Urozhay (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Urozhay (1X2) by about 22.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Urozhay (1X2) 35.0 12.5 +22.5
Draw (1X2) 29.8 21.9 +7.9
Tyumen (1X2) 35.2 65.6 -30.4
Over 2.5 goals 47.1 54.2 -7.1
Under 2.5 goals 52.8 45.8 +7.0
BTTS Yes 53.7 48.0 +5.8
BTTS No 46.3 52.0 -5.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.0% on Urozhay (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 12.5%. The difference — about 22.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Urozhay (1X2) 7.2 7.2 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.1 4.1 0.0
Tyumen (1X2) 1.37 1.37 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.7 1.7 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.01 2.01 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.9 1.9 0.0
BTTS No 1.75 1.75 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Tyumen; market prices Tyumen instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Urozhay 1.34 xG vs Tyumen 1.22 → Tyumen 35.2%
  • Market: Tyumen ~65.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 52.8% · Over 2.5 47.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League A - Division A Silver Second League A - Division A Silver — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rodina Moskva II 14 7 4 3 25
2 Kaluga 14 7 3 4 24
3 Torpedo Miass 14 4 8 2 20
4 Irtysh Omsk 14 4 7 3 19
5 Urozhay 14 4 6 4 18
6 Dinamo Vladivostok 14 5 2 7 17
7 Avangard Kursk 14 3 4 7 13
8 Murom 14 2 6 6 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kaluga 14 20 14 +6 24
2 Rodina Moskva II 14 18 12 +6 25
3 Irtysh Omsk 14 15 13 +2 19
4 Torpedo Miass 14 14 12 +2 20
5 Urozhay 14 14 14 0 18
6 Avangard Kursk 14 14 23 -9 13
7 Dinamo Vladivostok 14 13 16 -3 17
8 Murom 14 13 17 -4 12
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