Statistics / Football / Russia. Second League A - Division A Silver / Amkar vs Zenit 2

Amkar vs Zenit 2 Statistics & Analysis

Amkar Amkar
May 20, 2026 - 14:00
4 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 40%
Zenit 2 Zenit 2
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Amkar Amkar ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 14:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1608258

Closing Odds 1.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Amkar win · Amkar 4–2 Zenit 2
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Zenit 2 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Zenit 2 (1X2) by about 11.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Amkar (1X2) 41.8 56.2 -14.4
Draw (1X2) 25.7 23.1 +2.6
Zenit 2 (1X2) 32.6 20.8 +11.8
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 56.8 -6.2
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 43.2 +6.2
BTTS Yes 56.2 56.2 -0.0
BTTS No 43.8 43.8 +0.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Zenit 2 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.8%. The difference — about 11.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Amkar (1X2) 1.6 1.6 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.9 3.9 0.0
Zenit 2 (1X2) 4.33 4.33 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.62 1.62 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.13 2.13 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.62 1.62 0.0
BTTS No 2.08 2.08 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Second League A - Division A Silver
  • Fixture: Amkar vs Zenit 2
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-20 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Amkar 1.45 — Zenit 2 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 43.0% · Probability edge: +6.4 pts · Est. EV: +7.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 65.1% · No 34.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League A - Division A Silver Second League A - Division A Silver — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rodina Moskva II 14 7 4 3 25
2 Kaluga 14 7 3 4 24
3 Torpedo Miass 14 4 8 2 20
4 Irtysh Omsk 14 4 7 3 19
5 Urozhay 14 4 6 4 18
6 Dinamo Vladivostok 14 5 2 7 17
7 Avangard Kursk 14 3 4 7 13
8 Murom 14 2 6 6 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kaluga 14 20 14 +6 24
2 Rodina Moskva II 14 18 12 +6 25
3 Irtysh Omsk 14 15 13 +2 19
4 Torpedo Miass 14 14 12 +2 20
5 Urozhay 14 14 14 0 18
6 Avangard Kursk 14 14 23 -9 13
7 Dinamo Vladivostok 14 13 16 -3 17
8 Murom 14 13 17 -4 12
Second League A - Division A Silver Russia. Second League A - Division A Silver Predictions