Statistics / Football / Ecuador. Liga Pro Serie B / LDU Portoviejo vs 22 de Julio

LDU Portoviejo vs 22 de Julio Statistics & Analysis

LDU Portoviejo LDU Portoviejo
Aug 21, 2026 - 20:30
2 1.55
0 1.05
xG Accuracy: 66%
22 de Julio 22 de Julio
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 LDU Portoviejo LDU Portoviejo ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 13, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3822662

Closing Odds 1.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result LDU Portoviejo win · LDU Portoviejo 2–0 22 de Julio
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), 22 de Julio (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
LDU Portoviejo (1X2) 47.3 64.9 -17.6
Draw (1X2) 28.5 21.0 +7.6
22 de Julio (1X2) 24.1 14.1 +10.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 60.1 -11.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 39.9 +11.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.9%. The difference — about 11.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
LDU Portoviejo (1X2) 1.4 1.4 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.33 4.33 0.0
22 de Julio (1X2) 6.43 6.43 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.54 1.54 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.32 2.32 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga Pro Serie B
  • Fixture: LDU Portoviejo vs 22 de Julio
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 20:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 47.3% · Draw 28.5% · Away 24.1%
  • xG (showing): LDU Portoviejo 1.55 — 22 de Julio 1.05 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.8% · No 47.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.8% · No 47.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Pro Serie B Liga Pro Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ind. Juniors 22 10 9 3 39
2 Atletico FC 22 9 11 2 38
3 9 de Octubre 22 9 10 3 37
4 Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 22 9 7 6 34
5 Cuniburo 22 8 7 7 31
6 San Antonio 22 7 10 5 31
7 Gualaceo SC 22 7 8 7 29
8 Santo Domingo 22 6 10 6 28
9 LDU Portoviejo 22 7 6 9 27
10 Cumbayá 22 5 11 6 26
11 22 de Julio 22 4 3 15 15
12 El Nacional 22 2 6 14 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ind. Juniors 22 28 16 +12 39
2 Atletico FC 22 25 14 +11 38
3 Cuniburo 22 25 17 +8 31
4 San Antonio 22 24 21 +3 31
5 9 de Octubre 22 22 14 +8 37
6 Cumbayá 22 22 22 0 26
7 Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 22 20 23 -3 34
8 Gualaceo SC 22 19 16 +3 29
9 Santo Domingo 22 17 16 +1 28
10 LDU Portoviejo 22 17 22 -5 27
11 El Nacional 22 15 32 -17 12
12 22 de Julio 22 10 31 -21 15
Liga Pro Serie B Ecuador. Liga Pro Serie B Predictions