22 de Julio vs Deportivo Cuenca Juniors Statistics & Analysis

22 de Julio

Aug 14, 2026 - 20:00

0 1.16

1 1.44

xG Accuracy: 64%

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Deportivo Cuenca Juniors Deportivo Cuenca Juniors ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3094818

Closing Odds 1.83

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Deportivo Cuenca Juniors win · 22 de Julio 0–1 Deportivo Cuenca Juniors

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices 22 de Julio (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 8.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
22 de Julio (1X2)	28.8	21.3	+7.5
Draw (1X2)	29.3	28.8	+0.6
Deportivo Cuenca Juniors (1X2)	41.9	50.0	-8.1
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	39.8	+8.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	60.2	-8.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.8%. The difference — about 8.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
22 de Julio (1X2)	4.3	4.3
Draw (1X2)	3.18	3.18
Deportivo Cuenca Juniors (1X2)	1.83	1.83
Over 2.5 goals	2.36	2.36
Under 2.5 goals	1.56	1.56

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga Pro Serie B
Fixture: 22 de Julio vs Deportivo Cuenca Juniors
Kickoff: 2026-08-14 20:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
xG (showing): 22 de Julio 1.16 — Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.0% · Implied: 45.3% · Probability edge: +8.7 pts · Est. EV: +11.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for 22 de Julio & Deportivo Cuenca Juniors!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Liga Pro Serie B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Ind. Juniors	22	10	9	3	39
2	Atletico FC	22	9	11	2	38
3	9 de Octubre	22	9	10	3	37
4	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	9	7	6	34
5	Cuniburo	22	8	7	7	31
6	San Antonio	22	7	10	5	31
7	Gualaceo SC	22	7	8	7	29
8	Santo Domingo	22	6	10	6	28
9	LDU Portoviejo	22	7	6	9	27
10	Cumbayá	22	5	11	6	26
11	22 de Julio	22	4	3	15	15
12	El Nacional	22	2	6	14	12

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Ind. Juniors	22	28	16	+12	39
2	Atletico FC	22	25	14	+11	38
3	Cuniburo	22	25	17	+8	31
4	San Antonio	22	24	21	+3	31
5	9 de Octubre	22	22	14	+8	37
6	Cumbayá	22	22	22	0	26
7	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	20	23	-3	34
8	Gualaceo SC	22	19	16	+3	29
9	Santo Domingo	22	17	16	+1	28
10	LDU Portoviejo	22	17	22	-5	27
11	El Nacional	22	15	32	-17	12
12	22 de Julio	22	10	31	-21	15