Statistics / Football / Ecuador. Liga Pro Serie B / Cumbayá vs 9 de Octubre

Cumbayá vs 9 de Octubre Statistics & Analysis

Cumbayá Cumbayá
Jul 16, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.19
0 1.41
xG Accuracy: 49%
9 de Octubre 9 de Octubre
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 9 de Octubre Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 19:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3070841

Closing Odds 3.79
AI Fair Odds 2.47
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Cumbayá 0–0 9 de Octubre
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 40.5%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices 9 de Octubre (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on 9 de Octubre (1X2) by about 16.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Cumbayá (1X2) 30.1 36.2 -6.1
Draw (1X2) 29.4 39.6 -10.2
9 de Octubre (1X2) 40.5 24.2 +16.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 33.9 +14.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 66.1 -14.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 40.5% on 9 de Octubre (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.2%. The difference — about 16.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Cumbayá (1X2) 2.53 2.53 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.31 2.31 0.0
9 de Octubre (1X2) 3.79 3.79 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.75 2.75 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.41 1.41 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ecuador Liga Pro Serie B
  • Fixture: Cumbayá FC vs 9 de Octubre
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-16 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Cumbayá FC 1.19 — 9 de Octubre 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 36.3% · Probability edge: +11.9 pts · Est. EV: +32.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Pro Serie B Liga Pro Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ind. Juniors 22 10 9 3 39
2 Atletico FC 22 9 11 2 38
3 9 de Octubre 22 9 10 3 37
4 Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 22 9 7 6 34
5 Cuniburo 22 8 7 7 31
6 San Antonio 22 7 10 5 31
7 Gualaceo SC 22 7 8 7 29
8 Santo Domingo 22 6 10 6 28
9 LDU Portoviejo 22 7 6 9 27
10 Cumbayá 22 5 11 6 26
11 22 de Julio 22 4 3 15 15
12 El Nacional 22 2 6 14 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ind. Juniors 22 28 16 +12 39
2 Atletico FC 22 25 14 +11 38
3 Cuniburo 22 25 17 +8 31
4 San Antonio 22 24 21 +3 31
5 9 de Octubre 22 22 14 +8 37
6 Cumbayá 22 22 22 0 26
7 Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 22 20 23 -3 34
8 Gualaceo SC 22 19 16 +3 29
9 Santo Domingo 22 17 16 +1 28
10 LDU Portoviejo 22 17 22 -5 27
11 El Nacional 22 15 32 -17 12
12 22 de Julio 22 10 31 -21 15
Liga Pro Serie B Ecuador. Liga Pro Serie B Predictions