Statistics / Football / Ecuador. Liga Pro Serie B / 9 de Octubre vs Gualaceo SC

9 de Octubre vs Gualaceo SC Statistics & Analysis

9 de Octubre 9 de Octubre
Jul 11, 2026 - 21:00
0 1.45
0 1.15
xG Accuracy: 49%
Gualaceo SC Gualaceo SC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 9 de Octubre Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1488397

Closing Odds 1.58
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · 9 de Octubre 0–0 Gualaceo SC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Gualaceo SC (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 9.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
9 de Octubre (1X2) 47.1 57.9 -10.8
Draw (1X2) 29.0 26.8 +2.2
Gualaceo SC (1X2) 23.9 15.3 +8.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 38.7 +9.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 61.3 -9.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.7%. The difference — about 9.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
9 de Octubre (1X2) 1.58 1.58 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.42 3.42 0.0
Gualaceo SC (1X2) 5.97 5.97 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.41 2.41 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.52 1.52 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Pro Serie B
  • Fixture: 9 de Octubre vs Gualaceo SC
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-11 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 47.1% · Draw 29.0% · Away 23.9%
  • xG (showing): 9 de Octubre 1.45 — Gualaceo SC 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 53.9% · Implied: 40.9% · Probability edge: +13.0 pts · Est. EV: +22.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga Pro Serie B Liga Pro Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ind. Juniors 22 10 9 3 39
2 Atletico FC 22 9 11 2 38
3 9 de Octubre 22 9 10 3 37
4 Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 22 9 7 6 34
5 Cuniburo 22 8 7 7 31
6 San Antonio 22 7 10 5 31
7 Gualaceo SC 22 7 8 7 29
8 Santo Domingo 22 6 10 6 28
9 LDU Portoviejo 22 7 6 9 27
10 Cumbayá 22 5 11 6 26
11 22 de Julio 22 4 3 15 15
12 El Nacional 22 2 6 14 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ind. Juniors 22 28 16 +12 39
2 Atletico FC 22 25 14 +11 38
3 Cuniburo 22 25 17 +8 31
4 San Antonio 22 24 21 +3 31
5 9 de Octubre 22 22 14 +8 37
6 Cumbayá 22 22 22 0 26
7 Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 22 20 23 -3 34
8 Gualaceo SC 22 19 16 +3 29
9 Santo Domingo 22 17 16 +1 28
10 LDU Portoviejo 22 17 22 -5 27
11 El Nacional 22 15 32 -17 12
12 22 de Julio 22 10 31 -21 15
Liga Pro Serie B Ecuador. Liga Pro Serie B Predictions