Statistics / Football / Brazil. Brasileiro U20 A / Criciuma U20 vs Grêmio U20

Criciuma U20 vs Grêmio U20 Statistics & Analysis

Criciuma U20 Criciuma U20
Jul 01, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.37
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 52%
Grêmio U20 Grêmio U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Criciuma U20 Criciuma U20 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 16:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1737110

Closing Odds 1.91
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Criciuma U20 win · Criciuma U20 3–2 Grêmio U20
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Grêmio U20 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Criciuma U20 (1X2) 41.5 48.5 -7.1
Draw (1X2) 28.5 26.9 +1.6
Grêmio U20 (1X2) 30.0 24.5 +5.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 57.5 -9.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 42.5 +9.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.5%. The difference — about 9.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Criciuma U20 (1X2) 1.91 1.91 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.44 3.44 0.0
Grêmio U20 (1X2) 3.78 3.78 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.64 1.64 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.22 2.22 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Brasileiro U20 A
  • Fixture: Criciuma U20 vs Grêmio U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-01 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 28.5% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Criciuma U20 1.37 — Grêmio U20 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.7% · Probability edge: +9.1 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Brasileiro U20 A Brasileiro U20 A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Palmeiras U20 19 13 5 1 44
2 Vasco da Gama U20 19 11 3 5 36
3 Botafogo U20 19 11 3 5 36
4 RB Bragantino U20 19 10 4 5 34
5 Athletico PR U20 19 9 5 5 32
6 Santos U20 19 9 4 6 31
7 Cruzeiro U20 19 8 5 6 29
8 Corinthians U20 19 8 5 6 29
9 Bahia U20 19 8 5 6 29
10 Flamengo U20 19 7 7 5 28
11 São Paulo U20 19 6 7 6 25
12 América Mineiro U20 19 6 7 6 25
13 Cuiabá U20 19 6 3 10 21
14 Vitória U20 19 5 5 9 20
15 Fluminense U20 19 5 4 10 19
16 Grêmio U20 19 6 1 12 19
17 Juventude U20 19 5 3 11 18
18 Criciuma U20 19 5 2 12 17
19 Avaí U20 19 3 7 9 16
20 Fortaleza U20 19 2 9 8 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Palmeiras U20 19 54 23 +31 44
2 RB Bragantino U20 19 49 35 +14 34
3 Athletico PR U20 19 39 25 +14 32
4 Vasco da Gama U20 19 36 19 +17 36
5 Cruzeiro U20 19 35 27 +8 29
6 Botafogo U20 19 32 20 +12 36
7 Bahia U20 19 32 30 +2 29
8 Corinthians U20 19 31 25 +6 29
9 Grêmio U20 19 31 42 -11 19
10 Santos U20 19 29 24 +5 31
11 Flamengo U20 19 28 29 -1 28
12 São Paulo U20 19 27 26 +1 25
13 Fluminense U20 19 25 31 -6 19
14 América Mineiro U20 19 25 37 -12 25
15 Criciuma U20 19 24 40 -16 17
16 Avaí U20 19 24 43 -19 16
17 Vitória U20 19 20 31 -11 20
18 Juventude U20 19 20 39 -19 18
19 Cuiabá U20 19 19 27 -8 21
20 Fortaleza U20 19 18 25 -7 15