Statistics / Football / Brazil. Brasileiro U20 A / Palmeiras U20 vs América Mineiro U20

Palmeiras U20 vs América Mineiro U20 Statistics & Analysis

Palmeiras U20 Palmeiras U20
Jun 20, 2026 - 19:00
7 1.44
1 1.16
xG Accuracy: 21%
América Mineiro U20 América Mineiro U20
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Palmeiras U20 Palmeiras U20 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 7-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 11:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2605664

Closing Odds 1.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Palmeiras U20 win · Palmeiras U20 7–1 América Mineiro U20
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.34 percentage points on Palmeiras U20 (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 19.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Palmeiras U20 (1X2) 52.4 76.3 -23.9
Draw (1X2) 25.9 14.6 +11.3
América Mineiro U20 (1X2) 21.7 9.1 +12.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 67.3 -19.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 32.7 +19.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.7%. The difference — about 19.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Palmeiras U20 (1X2) 1.23 1.25 +1.3
Draw (1X2) 6.06 6.53 -0.6
América Mineiro U20 (1X2) 9.34 10.44 -0.7
Over 2.5 goals 1.38 1.38 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.84 2.84 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Brasileiro U20 A
  • Fixture: Palmeiras U20 vs América Mineiro U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-20 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 52.4% · Draw 25.9% · Away 21.7%
  • xG (showing): Palmeiras U20 1.44 — América Mineiro U20 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Brasileiro U20 A Brasileiro U20 A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Palmeiras U20 19 13 5 1 44
2 Vasco da Gama U20 19 11 3 5 36
3 Botafogo U20 19 11 3 5 36
4 RB Bragantino U20 19 10 4 5 34
5 Athletico PR U20 19 9 5 5 32
6 Santos U20 19 9 4 6 31
7 Cruzeiro U20 19 8 5 6 29
8 Corinthians U20 19 8 5 6 29
9 Bahia U20 19 8 5 6 29
10 Flamengo U20 19 7 7 5 28
11 São Paulo U20 19 6 7 6 25
12 América Mineiro U20 19 6 7 6 25
13 Cuiabá U20 19 6 3 10 21
14 Vitória U20 19 5 5 9 20
15 Fluminense U20 19 5 4 10 19
16 Grêmio U20 19 6 1 12 19
17 Juventude U20 19 5 3 11 18
18 Criciuma U20 19 5 2 12 17
19 Avaí U20 19 3 7 9 16
20 Fortaleza U20 19 2 9 8 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Palmeiras U20 19 54 23 +31 44
2 RB Bragantino U20 19 49 35 +14 34
3 Athletico PR U20 19 39 25 +14 32
4 Vasco da Gama U20 19 36 19 +17 36
5 Cruzeiro U20 19 35 27 +8 29
6 Botafogo U20 19 32 20 +12 36
7 Bahia U20 19 32 30 +2 29
8 Corinthians U20 19 31 25 +6 29
9 Grêmio U20 19 31 42 -11 19
10 Santos U20 19 29 24 +5 31
11 Flamengo U20 19 28 29 -1 28
12 São Paulo U20 19 27 26 +1 25
13 Fluminense U20 19 25 31 -6 19
14 América Mineiro U20 19 25 37 -12 25
15 Criciuma U20 19 24 40 -16 17
16 Avaí U20 19 24 43 -19 16
17 Vitória U20 19 20 31 -11 20
18 Juventude U20 19 20 39 -19 18
19 Cuiabá U20 19 19 27 -8 21
20 Fortaleza U20 19 18 25 -7 15