Naftan vs Belshina Statistics & Analysis

Naftan

Oct 10, 2026 - 12:00

4 1.25

1 1.35

xG Accuracy: 43%

Belshina

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Belshina Naftan ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13236250

Closing Odds 2.5

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Naftan win · Naftan 4–1 Belshina

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 1.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Naftan (1X2)	32.9	35.3	-2.4
Draw (1X2)	29.6	28.0	+1.6
Belshina (1X2)	37.6	36.7	+0.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.0%. The difference — about 1.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet at home

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
Naftan (1X2)	2.5	2.5
Draw (1X2)	3.15	3.15
Belshina (1X2)	2.4	2.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Naftan vs Belshina
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Naftan 1.25 — Belshina 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Naftan & Belshina!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	FC Isloch Minsk R.	22	13	6	3	45
2	ML Vitebsk	21	12	8	1	44
3	Dinamo Minsk	21	13	4	4	43
4	Dinamo Brest	23	12	4	7	40
5	FC Gomel	23	11	6	6	39
6	Neman	22	11	4	7	37
7	FC Vitebsk	23	10	6	7	36
8	FC Minsk	23	10	4	9	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	22	7	6	9	27
10	Slavia Mozyr	22	6	7	9	25
11	Baranovichi	23	6	7	10	25
12	Arsenal	23	5	8	10	23
13	Belshina	22	5	6	11	21
14	Bate Borisov	22	3	9	10	18
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	23	2	10	11	16
16	Naftan	23	3	5	15	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	ML Vitebsk	21	42	17	+25	44
2	Dinamo Brest	23	38	23	+15	40
3	Dinamo Minsk	21	37	16	+21	43
4	FC Isloch Minsk R.	22	37	18	+19	45
5	FC Gomel	23	33	18	+15	39
6	FC Minsk	23	30	28	+2	34
7	FC Vitebsk	23	28	21	+7	36
8	Torpedo Zhodino	22	28	29	-1	27
9	Neman	22	26	20	+6	37
10	Baranovichi	23	24	38	-14	25
11	Arsenal	23	24	41	-17	23
12	Slavia Mozyr	22	23	26	-3	25
13	Belshina	22	22	36	-14	21
14	FC Dnepr Mogilev	23	20	36	-16	16
15	Naftan	23	20	54	-34	14
16	Bate Borisov	22	16	27	-11	18