Statistics / Football / Belarus. Premier League / Slavia Mozyr vs ML Vitebsk

Slavia Mozyr vs ML Vitebsk Statistics & Analysis

Slavia Mozyr Slavia Mozyr
Jul 01, 2026 - 17:30
2 1.24
4 1.36
xG Accuracy: 39%
ML Vitebsk ML Vitebsk
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 ML Vitebsk ML Vitebsk ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 03:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3101831

Closing Odds 1.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result ML Vitebsk win · Slavia Mozyr 2–4 ML Vitebsk
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.58 percentage points on ML Vitebsk (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Slavia Mozyr (1X2) by about 10.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Slavia Mozyr (1X2) 28.6 18.0 +10.7
Draw (1X2) 29.1 25.4 +3.8
ML Vitebsk (1X2) 42.2 56.7 -14.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 45.0 +3.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 55.0 -3.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.6% on Slavia Mozyr (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.0%. The difference — about 10.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Slavia Mozyr (1X2) 4.43 5.24 -3.0
Draw (1X2) 3.44 3.71 -1.6
ML Vitebsk (1X2) 1.78 1.66 +4.6
Over 2.5 goals 2.1 2.11 +0.2
Under 2.5 goals 1.71 1.73 -0.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Slavia Mozyr vs ML Vitebsk
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-01 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.6% · Draw 29.1% · Away 42.2%
  • xG (showing): Slavia Mozyr 1.24 — ML Vitebsk 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 46.9% · Probability edge: +7.6 pts · Est. EV: +7.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Isloch Minsk R. 22 13 6 3 45
2 ML Vitebsk 21 12 8 1 44
3 Dinamo Minsk 21 13 4 4 43
4 Dinamo Brest 23 12 4 7 40
5 FC Gomel 23 11 6 6 39
6 Neman 22 11 4 7 37
7 FC Vitebsk 23 10 6 7 36
8 FC Minsk 23 10 4 9 34
9 Torpedo Zhodino 22 7 6 9 27
10 Slavia Mozyr 22 6 7 9 25
11 Baranovichi 23 6 7 10 25
12 Arsenal 23 5 8 10 23
13 Belshina 22 5 6 11 21
14 Bate Borisov 22 3 9 10 18
15 FC Dnepr Mogilev 23 2 10 11 16
16 Naftan 23 3 5 15 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 ML Vitebsk 21 42 17 +25 44
2 Dinamo Brest 23 38 23 +15 40
3 Dinamo Minsk 21 37 16 +21 43
4 FC Isloch Minsk R. 22 37 18 +19 45
5 FC Gomel 23 33 18 +15 39
6 FC Minsk 23 30 28 +2 34
7 FC Vitebsk 23 28 21 +7 36
8 Torpedo Zhodino 22 28 29 -1 27
9 Neman 22 26 20 +6 37
10 Baranovichi 23 24 38 -14 25
11 Arsenal 23 24 41 -17 23
12 Slavia Mozyr 22 23 26 -3 25
13 Belshina 22 22 36 -14 21
14 FC Dnepr Mogilev 23 20 36 -16 16
15 Naftan 23 20 54 -34 14
16 Bate Borisov 22 16 27 -11 18